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Having already dealt with hand rankings and the starting hands in parts 1 and 2, itâs time to turn to the mathematical side of the game and see just how much difference the 36-card deck makes to pot odds.
Letâs start with an open example:
Example 1
Six plus Holdâem ($10/20, 6-handed)
Hero: 910
Villain: QQ
Villain opens in seat 1 for $50, everyone else folds and you call in the BB. Pot = $110
Flop: 7KA
Hero checks and Villain continuation bets$55, half the pot, making the pot$165 (letâs not discuss whether itâs a good play or not - Iâm trying to make the maths simple for us all!)
We donât know what the villain has, but weâre pretty sure we are only drawing to the flush here, so it comes down to pot odds whether we call or not (letâs ignore a speculative re-raise in this scenario!)
There are only nine spades in the deck in total (remember that the 2,3,4 and 5 are all out of play) and five of them are split between the board, our hand and our opponentâs hand. We donât know that he has the Qs, so thatâs only four in play for our purposes â so five cards left to draw to.
So, 5 of the 31 cards unknown to us will likely win, which is about a 17% chance of hitting, and we have two attempts at hitting it, so roughly 34%.
The other way of calculating this is to count one out, which is one in 31 = 3.2%, soâŚ
In this instance, we are being offered 3-1 on the pot, and we are 2-1 to win, so itâs an easy call. Our flush draw will come in more often than not.
So, just as we saw in Part 2 that we are twice as likely to receive any particular starting hand, so the unofficial âRule of 4 & 2â changes and becomesâŚ..the âRule of 2&1â. Our %âs are easy to calculate quickly, if not 100% accurately.
With two cards to come in Texas Holdâem, we multiply our outs by four, if only the river is left then times by two. In Six Plus 2x and 1x is the easy way.
Also useful to note is if we had reason to believe our opponent was on trips, then his quite realistic chances of hitting a full house would have to be factored in were we playing Texas Holdâem â but in Six Plus a Flush beats a Full House anyway, so it wouldnât be an issue. A difference, and a crucial one.
Letâs try another example, and see how straights play with pot odds and outs.
Example 2
Six plus Holdâem ($10/20, 6-handed)
Hero: 910
Villain: QQ
Villain opens in seat 1 for $50, everyone else folds and you call in the BB. Pot = $110
Flop: 78K
Hero checks and Villain c-bets $55, half the pot, making the pot $165 (again, keeping the maths simple)
So, first of all we have ânothingâ except an open-ended straight draw, and we can consider our opponent to have something better than this, so again we are drawing to win.
We have eight outs (the four 6âs and the 4 Jacks) and there are again 31 unknown cards, so roughly 26%. And we have the turn and river to hit them. So, using the âguesstimatorâ rule of â2 & 1â for practical play, we can say 2 x 26%=52% chance of hitting.
Just to check thisâŚ.
This is even clearer than example one when it comes to pot odds: 3-1 pot odds and even money on a win with your straight.
However, if you factor in that your opponent might have trips â which now beats a straight in Six Plus Holdem, it brings the odds down a bit - though youâd have to actually âknowâ he was on trips to let it affect your play here.
The even more interesting aspect which this brings up, as pointed out on PokerVIP, is that:
Basically, if you know that your opponent doesnât have trips or better, you can just keep on raising, because if you have any kind of fold equity, youâre going to profit in the long run; and when you do get called, itâs as close to a flip as it will ever be, provided youâre not drawing dead.â
| Odds and Probabilities from the flop to the river | Texas | Six Plus |
| Making a flush from a 4-flush | 34.5% | 33% |
| Making a full house or better from a set | 33.3% | 54% |
| Making a full house from 2 pair | 16.4% | 26% |
| Filling an open-ended straight draw | 31.3% | 51% |
| Filling a gutshot straight by the river | 16.4% | 26% |
| Odds and Probabilities at the turn | Texas | Six Plus |
| Making a flush from a 4-flush | 19.6% | 16.5% |
| Making a full house or better from a set | 21.7% | 32.2% |
| Making a full house from 2 pair | 8.33% | 12.8% |
| Filling an open-ended straight draw | 17.2% | 25.6% |
| Filling a gutshot straight draw | 8.33% | 12.8% |
OK, so these are the basics regarding pot odds and outs âfor deeper strategy I refer you back to our earlier link where you can find all sorts of goodies which explain the differences in more details: stacking off, 3-betting ranges and much more.
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