Variance / Tilt / Fury; help!

Posted 8 years ago

Hi guys.

Frequently follower of PokerVip but more of a lurker than a poster.

I'm a Micro Stakes player, and had a great start to my month; by my own admission I ran relatively well; nothing insane, but hands held up and I was winning at a great winrate. My sessions were tilt-free, I was playing with confidence and more importantly I was enjoying poker (this is super important imo).

Then...Mid month I hit some variance. Not awful luck, but not making hands, running into bigger hands; a few suck outs, but nothing that anyone would consider to be irregular in the game.

I'll post my graph to show you just how my month has shaped, and I think you'll agree it makes for poor viewing.

If i'm totally honest with myself, I have (probably) tilted off around 8-10 buy ins in this bad spell, but every day I start with a fresh mind and wind up losing once again. I've beaten much higher stakes than 4nl (many years ago now and the games have changed) but how do I deal with this?

If any more stats are required just let me know.

Also, I know i've sort of answered the question here already, I'm just at a loss.

https://postimg.org/image/x9m5f0ntz/

fergrberger

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fergrberger

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Posted 8 years ago
If there was an easy fix to tilt everyone would be playing with a perfect mindset. Unfortunately, that's not the case and there are no easy answers. First of all, I'd start with establishing a stop-loss to avoid spewing too many buy-ins at a time. Ten 100bb spazzes in a span of 20k hand decrease your short-term win rate by like 5bb/100 which is huge. Second of all, I'd try to inject some self-awareness and try to figure out where is this tilt coming from. Do you care too much or too little about the money at the table? Maybe you feel like you deserve to win since you used to beat higher stakes in the past? Maybe you don't like the feeling of losing? Are you mad at your mistakes? Are you chasing losses or trying to get even with some of the players you lost money to? Without knowing the cause of your tilt it's hard to come up with an efficient solution, but you can also employ some general strategies targeted at improving your mental health and performance (meditation, physical exercise, proper diet - basically making sure that every non-poker related aspect of your life is on point).
Posted 8 years ago
Thanks for the reply, Matt. The ironic thing is, when I was a student, the money meant a hell of a lot since I lived off it. Now, it's not my source of income, yet I tilt way more than I ever did.

I found myself (in the second half of the graph) that I did, generally, get run over a bit. This led to frustration and hence a bit of tilt. That said, I've played the game long enough to know that running below average over 6k hands is not abnormal. I think I see these fish playing 45/25 etc and think 'they can't have it again' yet they seem to.

I'm definitely not chasing money, but I do tend to find that I have a few players at these stakes that I'm more likely to battle with as I've convinced myself that they're screwing with me. That said, the two players in mind are 3bet monkeys.
Posted 8 years ago
I think you're not really getting to grips with the realities of variance.

Even in games where you're winning maybe 7-8bb/100 you're going to hit break even stretchs of 100K. You're going to have downswings of more than 30 buyins. One of the hardest things for people who don't play full time is to keep patience while everything irons itself out.

It sounds like you're being honest with yourself about some failings, so rely a little bit more on that side of things to judge how you're really doing, rather than fretting over some short term variance.

Do you feel that on your tables that you have an edge over most of the players? Can you spot their leaks and understand how to exploit them? As long as you're working hard, and feel you're not outmatched just do your best to play your best game every time you sit down. Shorter sessions has always been something which helps me in difficult times.
Posted 8 years ago
@turlock (hope that's how I tag you), I definitely have an edge over the majority of players at these tables. That being, because they majority of the players are just plain bad. I have spotted leaks of several players that I regularly exploit (Bet sizing tells, a low cbet percentage often showing weakness, etc).

By a short session, play 500 hands and quit, sort of thing? Recharge, come back again later?
Posted 8 years ago
I always speak about these things differently as although we can train ourselves to be robotic we are not robots so what works for some will not work for others and you just have to learn the hard way and try new things.

Also should we call it tilt anymore? I feel this word softens up what it really is:

- Anger
- Depression
- Sadness
- Grief
- Sick feeling
- Anxiety
- Rage
- Heartbreak
- Despair

etc etc

So the main thing is why are you angry? Is it just losing money? If so you can try

- Playing lower
- Finding ways to detach yourself from monetary value
- Treat it as something different
- Gain more experience

if it is losing to bad players or just losing pots:

- Gain experience
- Do something else
- Learn more about poker and variance
- Study luck factors
- Man up

It is all a very harsh realization process and tbh most of it just comes from your circumstances...maybe money means a lot to you, maybe life outside of poker is shit atm, maybe you suffer from depression and this doesn't help, maybe you play when not feeling chilled etc etc......it just goes on and on and will always be specific to the player imo.

Many people go through life in super low pressure situations such as jobs, family and everything else then poker hits and your faced with tons of important decisions, financial responsibility and the rest of it. Some might be more prepared.

Just really think what it is then find the solution to the problem

Hope this helps Smile
Posted 8 years ago
Those are very viable points. I have a good job, that I love (I teach). The monetary value of this BR is not significant to me. I ran it up from £30 and am now sitting on considerably more. I'm happy in my life, just feel like the fish are owning me at the moment, is all.
Posted 8 years ago
Fish can't 'own' you neither consciously nor unconsciously. If they could they wouldn't be considered fish. In order to 'own' someone you have to be skilled enough to pull that off. It's just variance and 20k hands that you presented is a drop in the proverbial long-run bucket, because just like @Turlock mentioned, 100k break even stretches are common even for somewhat competent players. Since you seem to be very results driven try to hide the cashier and don't look at the results in your tracker for a week. Instead, try to focus on playing each and every spot to the best of your ability and see if that changes the way you feel.
Posted 8 years ago
@MattVIP I think that's great advice; I must admit, I do find myself 'cashier' watching or 'session watching' when Im losing. When I'm winning I don't look at all. That's a tell-tale sign.
Posted 8 years ago
That might do the trick. If you have trouble switching from the old habit (looking at cashier/session stats constantly) to a new one (looking at the results once per week/month depending on how deep and/or how easily replenishable your bankroll is) try a simple yet effective rubber band technique (not a self-improvement gimmick, it's well-researched technique used with success in trauma treatment for example). Wear a rubber band on your wrist during each session and every time you find yourself looking at cashier or session stats snap it on your wrist to create a negative feedback loop and help your mind associate that activity with something painful. Report back in a week and tell us if it helped.
Posted 8 years ago
I did actually used to play what I considered virtually tilt free, but I was a bit weird in those days and I certainly do tilt now on occasion. I now wonder if I was deluded and was actually on tilt all the time.

Just thought I'd mention in passing that I tilted off $95 in one (not particularly long) session at nl4 thinking I was being unlucky, we've all been there. Smile

I cant say much as far as advice is concerned unfortunately. I do think a stoploss is camouflage for more serious issues, so I wouldn't go that route although you may decide it works for you. A stoploss is like a quick fix imo, it doesn't really assess the underlying reason behind the tilt, it addresses the what but not the why is my thought on it.

That's the trouble with tilt, so many outside influences can alter the mindset we sit down to play with, making it difficult to suggest an all-encompassing 'take this pill and you'll never tilt again' prescription.

Tilt is a word that tries to blanket a whole spectrum of influences in my opinion and it fails by a long way. Look at things even before you play would be my suggestion. Had a tough day at work, sit down for a chill out at poker? Probably not going to happen if you're still thinking about something else. Maybe a warmup like watching a video of a crusher coach making it look easy might help, or try a lesson and quiz in the Poker Courses section of the Strategy Forum; something, anything, just to get your mind 'in the groove' and focused, ready for whatever the rng throws at you?

A bit rushed sorry but something to get you thinking 'Why' I hope. 'Why is this happening' is infinitely better question than 'Why me!'

Hope I made a little sense, I'm no expert obviously.

Gl. Smile





Posted 8 years ago
@Pwll I think that is fantastic advice. I am happy to admit that I often have that 'Why Me!!!!' mindset when losing. But, that said, despite a small piece of variance, I've looked at past sessions where I've lost 2 buy ins or more, and most of those sessions have 1, minimum, and sometimes as many as 3 pots where I have punted a buy in off. That's huge, and that isn't variances fault, at all.
Posted 8 years ago
MattVIP: That might do the trick. If you have trouble switching from the old habit (looking at cashier/session stats constantly) to a new one (looking at the results once per week/month depending on how deep and/or how easily replenishable your bankroll is) try a simple yet effective rubber band technique (not a self-improvement gimmick, it's well-researched technique used with success in trauma treatment for example). Wear a rubber band on your wrist during each session and every time you find yourself looking at cashier or session stats snap it on your wrist to create a negative feedback loop and help your mind associate that activity with something painful. Report back in a week and tell us if it helped.


That may be the strangest advice I've ever heard, but I know how cognitive behavioural treatments work, and this seems like sound advice... Will report back.
Posted 8 years ago
Why do you think it's strange? I guess I can empathize with the reaction cause I used to think I'm above simple solutions like the rubber band technique, but changing one's habits is rarely a smooth process and in my personal experience everything that can help with it is worth trying.
Posted 8 years ago
@MattVIP I guess I never thought of poker that deep that Cognitive Behavioural techniques could genuinely work. That said, I've tried it for the past few days. It's worked in regards to me not looking at my balance, and has helped me calm down in 'tilt-inducing' spots; I'm much more focussed, but not making many hands and pretty sure that I'm down still since starting it. But...it's a positive start
Posted 8 years ago
A key point worth noting here is that your downswing is in the region of 10 buy ins. These swings are going to happen even the best of players and it's extremely easy to be results orientated going back over results and looking at the large hands you have won/lost. In the last I've found myself reviewing a losing session and looking at a hand thinking that was a pretty bad stack off, then reviewing a winning session the following week and marking a similar situatiin hand from that session as a fantastic call.

The main thing is to be confident in your game. I am 100% sure that I am beating the games I play in over the long run so short term results don't tend to bother me too much. However, I am very susceptible to playing suboptimal lay for a wide variety of reasons. Usually in able to identify this and make the decision to stop playing and come back at it another day, the beauty of online poker is that there is always a game going!