Lets call in some stat people

@fergrberger
@Prostaker
@MilfGrinder
@Archinator

Thanks Captain. Maaayybe they can tell me how to get 'double barrel in my hud when I use PT4 as well!?

Anway, as I was saying, set over set 3 times this morning doesn't do my demeanour any good and the TTT

Hey Pwll,

You need need to widen your RFI more in LP:
Co:25-28 (if 2.5x)
BTN: 48-55 (if 2x)

Kinda need the stats for all positions to evaluate cbets (like the average).
The raise f-cbet, really good for the stake your playing, might even be doing this a better % than myself at 50nl/100nl!

WWSF is poor, defo need to floatbet and probe bet way way more. People don’t defend there checking range anywhere near enough until you hit like 200nl stars or something.
Broadly looking at your cb’s alhough we don’t have averages they look kinda good, but really it depends on how your using them, would require looking at some spots to evaluate, particularly in and out of position stats. Although actually I just saw your fold to floats and your folding too much which means your not constructing a very good cb range.

Key Take away:

Raise more in Co & BTN (your EV is too low here btn should be in the 40’s bb/100!)
Maybe watch a video on cbetting to construct better ranges.

To further improve get some coaching, this will be really beneficial, I’d recommend Adam Jones. He’s about £60 p/hr though but well worth it your hoping to move up. If that’s too much I can offer coaching at a lower rate, I’m not as good as him but I know how to crush the micro’s.
Here’s some of my stats, that are more optimal at 20nl speed fold. Note win-rates look a bit lower than what they would be on other sites because RB is high at Ipoker, so like an extra 4bb/100 is added on from RB.

Hi Achinator and thank you very much for the post! I have to go to town this morning for gardening stuff (oh joy) but I'll go through that again later today.

Thanks again.

I think you can save a lot of money by defending your blinds better. You are overfolding in both SB and BB. Raise both 3bet and CC from both poss.

3bet at least 10% SB vs steal. At least 3bet 8% BB vs stea. I would try and defen at least 20% of my range in SB vs stael and at least 40% in BB.

@Prostaker yes I agree and I've been trying stuff out there last couple of sessions. Seem weird defending a lot wide and just feels like I'm in nearly every pot at the moment! 3betting I've yet to come to terms with, people are a bit sticky and I lost money last session getting too sticky myself as well, but I'll get it down after a session or three and be good to go.

Thank you for the %, they have given me a good indicator.

Moving up may still be on next month but my mower blew up today so we'll see. I do want my game to be a little more solid first to even though I'm winning at a nice clip at nl5.

Why don't you get involved in all of This?

Get paid to post hands. Easy

Get 55% rakeback for a week. Easy

Get a deposit match up to $25. Easy

Seems perfect?

My mower is unfortunately a priority and an expense I can ill afford, or I would have done so. Maybe on another occasion things will converge with nicer timing. Thank you anyway.

Going to start a nice new db tonight and see if I can implement some of the advice given by our very generous members above. I can put some volume in so it should be quite soon to see if I've got the idea and it's a nice clean drive onward rather than a slow climb to improvement using the old db.

That's my take on it anyway!

Hugs for a fun Friday everybody.

By the way, thanks to all who contributed and to @Jon-PokerVIP for flagging it up.

I got a new db and the mighty w34z3l's ranges going so hoping that will increase my rfi longer term. Seems @Archinator is proving a strong player these days, gotta get caught up even if just a little bit! Run good buddy.

I suspect he has some way to go before they fear his checks though:



As to poker, yesterday was so weird, couldn't win a pot earlier and went down 4BI. Brought on a few substitutes for the 2nd have and ended up +25bb or so; woohoo.
Today is going fine with the new fangled ranges stuff and a bit of paying attention, but truth be told I don't stick to them rigidly, it's all situationally dependant as usual.

Anyhooo, here's this morning's garf, people like garfs:




Fear me varmints, fear me!

Laters and keep it fun.

@Pwll

Nice graph, and nice check on the flop, too many players cb there becuase it's profitable, but the higher EV play is definatey checking!

So here's how yesterdays session ended up:




It allows me to withdraw £100 to buy a mower today, but as is the way of things I ran into a couple of real coolers this morning so down about 3BI at them moment. It's all good, it all comes back to Mal in the end. Doomswitch ftw

The idea is to get good, rather than build a roll, although obviously they are kinda symbiotic. The first part is going well thanks to the guys helping out and a lot of off-table math stuff.

Might do a challenge suggested by the mrs and a mate (oi, I can haz mates to!) for next month, nothing spectacular but might be fun before I move up.

Nasty day yesterday, down -5bi then back to -1, whew. Today would have been a bit better but a non believer called my river bluff shove with 4th pair no less like a boss, oh well, mark him and move along. So, -1BI for the day, I'll be back.

Bought a mower for 375 so got some I could have put back onto the poker if my trainers had lasted a bit longer.

Worse, I've been doing effin gardening all day, planting poxy flowery things and a small tree. Oh fkn joy, I just love gardening don't I. If I'm really good and the rain holds off I'll be painting the shed doors tomoz. FML.

Livin' the dream, just livin' the dream.

Have fun.

Do you play any MTTs at all? I remember you playing in the first couple of seasons of the OPL IIRC?

@killjoy1987 no not really, only if I get given a silly $1.10 ticket on Party for whatever reason. Unfortunately my br wont stretch to the OPL etc for the moment so that's out to which is a shame as I did ok in those - well some of them anyway!

The problem with MTTs for me is boredom getting dealt 94o blah blah and blinding down only to get my KJ in the sb shove called ky KK in the bb, gggrrrr! So, I need to play loads of tourneys as they are obviously a numbers game, which is above my paygrade for now.

I can't lose at no limit at the stakes I'm at so that's another consideration. I think up to nl25 I'll be fine exploiting people, after that it gets a bit trickier!

Thanks for popping in and reading my drivel by the way.

lol donkments. As soon as I register and the first hand is dealt I already want to kill myself.

Turbos are the only ones I can enjoy, not a fan of these standard or deep-stacks, you'll play for hours just to min cash.

Think I'm with you on that one Harvie.

Been thinking about 3betting a fair bit lately.
If someone wants/needs the maths I'll post it up by the way, it's not hard stuff.

Say a reg plays 4bet/fold oop (which is often the case), opens to 3bb from the UTG and we 3bet to 9bb from the BU, then we need fold equity of about 67% preflop. I've found from experience, although I haven't run any reports on this to back it up, that regs fold mostly around this or a bit more, particularly OOP.
Let the UTG open around 15% for example (keeping the sums easy), then to play 4bet/fold they will need to defend around 6% for us to break even. I highly doubt an 15% rfi reg is going broke with 5%(more likely 2.5%), which leaves us with a nice profitable move.

I think we get a lot more folds than that, even if they do 4bet bluff or flat on occasion because they feel we're getting out of hand. Truth is it's hard to flat a 3bet OOP and not play fit/fold because even if they call a cbet, what if we barrel on a 'danger' turn?

Anyway, I got as far as extrapolating this to the reg 4bet/folds to 3bets 80% of the time. If we make profit when they 4bet/fold 70%, then surely we can just pound them at 80? I think this is a bit of a misconception, which was my motivation in looking at all this stuff.

Say we 3bet the 80% folds guy to death until they adjust, it seems to me that we're gaining 10% more of the pot each time they fold than we do versus the 70% folds guy. Sounds fun, but;

The pot is 4.5bb before we 3bet and generate a fold from our reg friend.

and 10% of 4.5 is only 0.45bb which suddenly doesn't sound so great. Oh yes, it all adds up over time I know; but does it in reality?

I think nearly any reg will get fed up and play back at us after a short time, whether they do so well or badly (more likely the latter) is immaterial surely.

Say we 3bet and get folds 5 times in a row, we've gained 5 X 0.45bb = 2.25bb more than if we attack them more 'normally' as the 70% folds reg. But now they've played back and we lose our profit and our bet, which was 9bb so we are in loss now.

So, more succinctly, just because they fold a little more than the norm doesn't mean we can go all ape and start pummeling them with abandon, although those blockers count for a lot of course.

I had a look at casual players to but came to a different conclusion, in fact fairly well opposed to the one above.

This has been a bit of a mouthful, but if anyone has read this and didn't fall asleep or cry laughing and can see holes in my thinking, this please let me know.

My brain cell hurts.

Here's a 'Whew!' graph from Monday:

Be looking at 3bets OOP tomoz so that will keep me busy enough.

Things still going ok (fish on a heater alert) but it would be nice if my damned aces and kings would hold.




Running like liquid gold and moaning; well, I am British after all.

Early night, beerless ffs and tired now anyway.

My thought exactly. "MTT's bring more disappointment than dating and selling life insurance combined" they are the nut-effing-low of both poker and life.

We seem to be firmly in the minority, maybe because we prefer to use a bit of skill though, as variable as that may be.

So one more graph after this one and it's end of the month time:

I didn't play well this morning, played like mr potato head and missed loads of opportunities to take advantage, so I sat out for a short session.

Sometimes pure skill will do it though;





One more graph after this one tomorrow then it's next month time! Been on Party for about 5 weeks now and it's going pretty damned well frankly.

When the rain stops I'm off out with the poo machine to get a beer for tonight.

Have a sunny day.

Maybe he thought you was FOS, I mean why would you raise a boat on that turn, you have him crushed and it's hard for him to call you raise with anything but a flush, folding all their bluffs.


I'm guessing he was thinking that and re jammed hate the hand he did it with no, drawing dead.