colly191091

Could use your help on this one!

Villain is playing 19/15 with a fold to 3bet of 79% over 500 hands. Have seen him flat call 3bets with AK in and out of position before...

My Thoughts

Flop - Woop! Overpair, lots of value to be had from AQ / AK / QJs / KJs / KTs / Flush draws / Straight draws etc. KQ is a bit of a concern though... And QQ which he could flat preflop but less likely (although if he can flat with AK, he can flat with QQ on occasion too). I bet 14bb's into 21 as we are deep. Sizing ok? *Note that we have the Ad and the Kd is present on the board so these block some of his big flush draws.

Turn - Another flush draw arrived but 8 doesn't change anything else. If he had KQ, a set of 7's or Q's, I'd expect him to raise here a decent % of the time... Which he doesn't in this case. So, another big value bet trying to get stacks in for the river. Could have went a touch larger I think. I will have 116bb's remaining with a pot of 127bb's on the river.

River - Now this is where it gets interesting! DISASTER! Backdoor flush gets there which he can definitely have and KQ / QQ makes a boat. AK / KJs / KTs also improve and are ahead, which I'd imagine is a laaarge part of his range after calling that big turn bet. How would you navigate this river card when there's only a pot sized bet left? As played... I check. I have no idea if that is the right play or not... And then villain shoves... AHHH??????

Any feedback would be HUGELY appreciated!

Cheers

Hand Conversion Powered by WeakTight Poker Hand History Converter
$0.05/$0.10 No Limit Holdem 888
6 Players

Blinds$0.05/$0.106
UTG lepry $13.13
UTG+1 Zeppelin123 $22.23
CO param_PamPam $11.12
D petethecab2 $10.52
SBHero $17.99
BB Any2Lew $10.41

Preflop
6$0.15Hero is SBAA
1 fold, Zeppelin123 raises to $0.30, 2 folds, Hero raises to $1, 1 fold, Zeppelin123 calls $0.70

Flop
2$2.10Q7K
Hero bets$1.40, Zeppelin123 calls $1.40

Turn
2$4.908
Hero bets$3.90, Zeppelin123 calls $3.90

River
2$12.70K
Hero checks, Zeppelin123 goes all-in $15.93, Hero ???

Last Post 8 years ago by

Turlock

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https://www.pokervip.com/thread/view?forum=poker-strategy&slug=aa-10nl-9&nav=577d8c7dd39043d6068b4580

Another thing: Should we consider checking the flop for pot control seeing as we're 180bb's deep? Was I over-aggressive here?

I like the sizing flop. as you said there are a lot of draws that are going to pay so you want to get max value from them. I don't think you should check to pot control because you are loosing a lot of value from those draws.

On turn i agree. 8c doesn't change much. like you said KQ would raise flop and i expect the same with QQ or 77. So he can have AK that just flat KJ/KT and AQ/QT/QJ and diamonds fd's.

On river after you check if he as a Qx in his hand i don't think he is shoving. he is going to check and have a cheap showdown unless obv if its Qxcc. A kx is very likely and some bluffs with the missed diamonds.
You could bet small/fold this river to get some value of a Qx hand. But same time i like the x because gives him the opportunity to bluff the missed fd. As played i think i'm calling. I think or either he shoves strong K here like AK or a pure bluff. Like i said above every Q is checking and even possible a weak K like KT. but also think if he as AK he will raise at least on turn to protect. so mostly i think he is going to show up with a hand like 9Tdd or smth.

I like this

Just remember that one pair hands rarely are good ID called 3 streets in pots that grow bigger than 200bb. I like the 3/4 flop 3/4 turn sizing then would make it about 50-60% OTR.

But here I like thebx/f OTR

@Perucao Thanks for response! After further analysis, I think he's a lot more weighted to value combos. AQ is the only hand with beat within his 11% calling range. JTs or 9Ts are the only bluffs I can think of on this river. QJs would just check back. I opted to check / fold in the end. Sick spot

@CrazyCookie Good stuff

I can sleep better tonight now

Same betting pattern as the other hand. You bet 2/3 on the flop then 80% on the turn. I'd rather you made it bigger on the flop to get the same money in with a smaller turn bet.

As played I'm folding the river. 19/15 player types are almost never overbet bluffing rivers in 180bb deep pots.

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