QQ, NL25

Posted 7 years ago

Your opinion please! Thanks.

http://www.handconverter.com/hands/3078430
Scrubx

Last Post 7 years ago by

Scrubx

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Posted 7 years ago
Line looks totally fine. Could 4b pre but as played I am not folding to this randomness ever
Posted 7 years ago
Pre-Flop: I'm not a big fan of cold calling here - don't think it's terrible but I'd cold4bet - looking to fold vs a 5bet shove (once they put in the 5bet shove they are just extremely nutted - if you put in some equities and look at your odds - QQ can quite happily cold4bet into fold vs a 5bet shove) - that being said there is still value in cold4betting - we are usually ahead of the 3bet range - we don't want to see a MW pot with our hand - and we certainly can get some value by 4betting if e.g. the CO calls the 4b.

Flop: Size up - you are not nutted enough - the texture is not dry enough - and it's MW - I'm not a fan of 1/3 here - just size up to about half pot. You also want to create a good SPR for the turn - so e.g. if you bet like 5$ you achieve that quite well.

As played I'd call off . I'm not extremely thrilled about the spot - but at the same time I can't rule out him having JJ or even TX or some sort of draw sometimes. Given the odds / the SPR - given that people tend to decently often spazz vs 1/3 cbets - yeah I'm allin.
Posted 7 years ago
I don't like 4bet -fold QQ ,when you 4bet-fold you tranform a value hand into a bluff so you can do with a hand like A2-5s or KQ,AQ hands with blockers ,i think 4bet and call shove or call it's also ok ,utg look fishy and CO can 3bet wider like 1010+,KJs,KQo,ATs,AJo if he's not folding vs 3bet ,if utg is folding vs 3bet he can 3bet something like A2-5s ,qq+ but i think he's 3betting wider. On flop you should bet bigger 60% pot also i like more checking back ,on the T it will be more easy to play , i put Co a range - since you have Qh you block some combo draws (AhKh, AhJh, KhJh, Ah4h, Ah3h, Ah2h -0.45% - and value hands 1010+ -2.26%) against this range on F he got 61.73% - 38,27 - if you bet bigger you could call shove but you still got a lot of money left almost a stack .I don't think he will play JJ or Tx like that ,when he c-shove he's polarized his range.
Posted 7 years ago
I think you didn't really give solid reasons why 4bet-into-folding QQ wouldn't be a good play. You are not turning your hand into a bluff - you are 4betting for value and once you get 5bet jammed on you realize you are in a world of trouble and you make a correct fold.

Basically what you wrote is a trend I see a lot of Players doing - feeling way 2 pot-commited in spots you just are not.

You 4bet folding QQ doesn't mean you can't do the same with hands like AQ fwiw, you can still 4bet fold those hand aswell.

CO 3betting wider doesn't mean that he also is 5betting wide - once people face cold 4bets they react EXTREMELY passive most of the pool won't even jam QQ AK - the vast majority of the pool literally have a 5bet jamming range of KK and AA at that point - and quite a bunch of the 25nlz Regs would even just flat KK in that scenario.


Let me back this up with some math: We do cold4bet to about 6$ - UTG folds - CO Jam - there will be 32,48$ in the pot and hero has to call 19,38$ giving hero odds off 37% - and this is not taking rake into account - if you take rake into account our real odds will be more like 39% ~

Now let's design a rather !WIDE! 5bet shoving range here for villain facing a cold4bet - meaning AKo, AKs, QQ+ - vs this range hero has 40,2% - so basically roughly a slightly plus EV call - or rather BE.

BUT (and that's the big but) most players wouldn't just 5bet jam AKo QQ here - and if you know start reducing those combos to like half of the them. Well suddenly hero only has 33.4%.

And well there certainly are players that will only shove KK+ in this scenario and vs those guys hero has 18.3%.

So even in the kind of "best-case-scenario" we roughly are breaking-even on the 4bet into calling off, to really make it a profitable play we would need villain to 3bet into 5bet jam (vs a cold 4bet) a range off JJ+ AKo, and yeah if you have grinded a decent bit of the micro-stakes you will know that that's just not what is happening there :D.

And well this is just pure-math, you can't really argue with pure math. Cheeky
Posted 7 years ago
You are right ,you can be max BE in this spot when 4bet/call shove also depends of co villan ,if he's weak he will call with QQ,AK opp it's better to 4bet since he will be face up but i think this is -ev for him , i would shove or fold . I like more cold calling than 4bet since utg look fishy ,we keep the fish in pot and co range wider .
Posted 7 years ago
I have no idea why you would think UTG looks fishy? (When we are faced with the decision to cold call or 4bet)
Why do you say he looks fishy?
Posted 7 years ago
UTG: $71.53 - VPIP: 29, PFR: 12, 3B: 0, AF: 0,8, Hands: 66 (looks like a reg fish or maybe he is more loose )
Posted 7 years ago
That's 66 hands - you can never draw such big conclusions from 66 hands - a 66 hand sample is really worthless. And his stats don't even look that crazy - sure they look not exactly 100% normal - but 66 hands is no sample to justify such a big decision preflop.
Or rather I would rarely to never base a decision on a 66 hands sample.