I dont mind taking this hand to showdown, we can take a free card on the turn to realise our equity and we can still have the best hand a % of the time like you say.

Save the bet bet line once checked to for our 9T TJ combos and AJ AT with spades that needs to bluff.

If you have a read that villain is over cbetting flop with this type of hand and checking turn river then I would look to check back turn and bet river as I think that line credibly reps all of your Qx hands.

I'd bet 100% of the time here. Villain will take those line with some ax, SC and pp that Stan and give up. Villain shouldn't be checking kx much if at all here given we can have quite a few draws/G's/qx, so when he checks his range is likely very called at maybe some small KXs and his qx and bluffs.

A $2.20 bet needs to work around 38% of the time, which I think it will do comfortably.

Shoving river once called otf is probably going to be profitable as well, but if your mental game is bad the -EV through being pissed off when villain track calls AQ or K8s will probably trump the slightly profitable shove.

Im betting every time too! If we do have sdv he likely has two live cards which we do not want him to see for free and hit! We are getting check raised here almost never so if we bet we will still get to see a river to improve! Finally as Cookie says I think it works 38% easily so should be directly profitable anyway!

If we want to get villain to fold his own weak showdown value that beats ours ie pocket pairs that bet once and give up or something like A5s 67s then we can check back turn to realise our equity for free and make the same bet if we miss on the river credibly repping AQ JQs type hands.

If we bet turn every time we're checked to with all combos of AJ AT then we need to bet river too unless we improve. Now I think we start to run into problems because we're going to be over bluffing with hands that we don't necessarily need to turn into a bluff just yet.

For nitty value let's say we bet turn with all combos of KQ KJ 66 that's 24 combos. Then we're definitely betting 9Ts TJs and AT AJ of spades - 10 combos. Now add AJ AT at 16 combos each that's 42 combos. Villain can now easily CB check call all his Kx and even some Qx hands and print money vs us.

Yeah, but when we check turn our own range is capped and villain may choose to bluff river. we have a profitable bet v the missed turn cbet and will also have kx the value bet and check OTT.

Also if we check turn then lead river a) villain will realise his equity and b) villain will be more likely to x/c river with a hand like JJ, TT as he knows he hasn't got to put in any more streets.

You're getting into balancing which is completely useless at 50nl and 100nl let alone 10nl.

Villain can play perfectly by check calling down his kx and Qx... But a) he doesn't know we are over bluffing b) he will never have the sample size to know we are c) it's not going to be easy for him to make the check call down even if he did know we are over bluffing as he has a medium strength hand and will play for all his chips and d) the population never over bluff here so for him to x/c down will be -EV v the population.

Come on man - on the one hand your saying balance at 50nl 100nl and especially 10nl is not relevant which is most definitely not true, then your talking about capped ranges and expecting villain to have a clear understanding of how his and our range now plays if we check back turn.

Colly obviously has a pretty clear understanding that his hand has good show down value and he doesnt need to go crazy and bet 100% of the time with 100% of his combos. At the end of the day everyone's here to learn and climb the stakes, the best way to do that is to learn how to play your ranges in a balanced manner and deviate where appropriate.

I do actually think we can bet some combos of AJ after giving it some more thought, maybe the ones with A of spades. We can definitely get check raised here on the turn too, we clearly have gutters and straight draws that will call flop and bet turn when checked to therefore villain can check raise all his AK+ type hands for value as well as his own gutters and open enders.

This is obviously terrible for us now that weve decided to bet all of our AJ combos, we dont get to realise our own equity and are potentially getting bluffed off the best hand before we even get to see the river.

If we check back turn and bet river which we can do for sure with all AQ combos then more power to the guy that wants to call us down with under pairs on that board vs that line.

I think I would be more tempted to bet turn and river.

Assuming that villain will take a check call line most often with his Qx type hands, his range is going to be full of Kx and bluffs/draws. We do beat his bluffs but by betting we prevent ourselves from getting bluffed on the river if we check the turn behind. I'm not keen on hero calling AJ even if we do expect to be good some %.

Most of his Kx which checks the turn won't be feeling great about facing a third barrel and I would expect to get enough folds to make it more EV than simply hoping to check it down.

Re the comments about balance and overbluffing, I doubt it's much of a factor here. This spot won't come up a great deal, and if anything I struggle to find enough spots where I can float and double barrel against a range that gives me enough fold equity on a suitable board.

In this instance balance is not relevant. Also villain being capped is relevant and is at all levels as he will not play the top of his range like this.

Simply put v his assumed checking range of qx pp and bluffs that give up then he is folding easily enough for it to be +EV and we have 15-20% v his pp and potentially some implied odds when we make the nuts.

You can check back and bluff river, but that needs villain to check again OTR which he won't do 100% of the time and when he does he will be x/c Qx and maybe a hand like JJ TT that puts us on a draw or AK we are now staying to get pp to fold.

Just for reference what stakes are you playing right now? Like, at stakes above 100nl, I would be more inclined to check this back and then mix up bluffing it OTR with value betting AQ and QJ as yes we will end up with too many bluffs OTR and will find players begin to call down morw... but at 10nl I value bet AQ OTT and check river and I bet AJ OTT and probably OTR also along with QQ KQ 66 if I didn't raise the flop.

At 2nl-100nl a huge leak is people check folding after miss cbets both in SRP and 3bp.

Also regarding playing leaening how to play balanced ranges being best way to learn.... Like I agree in the sense that it is important to understand your range v villains range and how the ranges play on different board textures; but the best way to learn isn't how to play your ranges balanced. It's a very overused concept that is not very useful when you can exploit in a spot like this when villain is x/f 50%-70% OTT. No need to have a balanced range when you can print money :')

Why wouldn't you bet 100% of combos if you are making money every time you do so... Also AJ here doesn't have a tonne of SDV. Villain has a lot of kx qx pp in his range and some air hands that will still have upwards of 12% so yeah we probably win 20% at showdown, but we win a heck of a lot more by betting.

I feel like Im getting into some kind of pissing war or something so Im not going to cover every thing you've just mentioned by saying no this is right and this is how this should be done.

I play 50nl and 100nl at the moment with some experience playing 200nl and would say that across all 3 of those stakes its really important to try and have a solid well balanced game or at least an understanding of one to start with to be able to consistently make money. To be able to do what your saying and exploit peoples leaks you need to at least know what it means or looks like to be balanced in the first place.
Its definitely not an overused concept, its basically one of the main fundamentals that need to be understood to make progress in poker especially in today's games.

Granted, I don't play 10nl or have a feel for how the player pool reacts in certain situations and were making a lot of assumptions here. If we know for sure based on some stats that villain is folding turn vs a flop float then fire away 100% and print that money like you say. If we know for sure that villain or player pool is never ever check raising then sure fire away 100% and print that money.

There are parts of the above post I dont agree with but Im just going to let it lie, hero has plenty of information to sift through and he can come to his own conclusion as to what he believes is the best way to play his range.

It's not a pissing war :')

I'm not saying checking turn and betting river would be bad, it's likely +EV but betting v missed cbets is one of the most profitable exploitative plays out there, and when we have a gs and likely one or more over cards and get enough folds with a bet OTR as well to make that bet profitable, I don't see why you are getting so annoyed at a bet OTT?

Im not really annoyed just a little fustrated, it feels like ive been 2 outered a couple of times and then have just ran Ks into Aces for the 3rd time in a single sesh thats all

You make comments in 1 post about something youve said when you meant something else, you use very basic math asif that is the deifnitive answer and means said line is auto profitable based on general asumptions leading to slight monkey tilt on my part - I must apologise for that!

I love the fact that your thinking and trying to play exploitative poker, especially at these stakes as theres defo a tonne of money to be made doing that. I do think though thats is better for hero to understand how he should play his range in a vacuum first off and then adjust. Maybe you think that too but its just not coming across that way.

Im leaving at that now, its been a fun thread, ciao!

Some great discussion in this thread!