NL10 Jacks UTG

Posted 8 years ago

Anon table. What is the best line to navigate this spot?

Hand Conversion Powered by WeakTight Poker Hand History Converter
$0.05/$0.10 No Limit Holdem Prima
5 Players

Blinds 0.5BB/1BB5
UTGHero $111.8BB
CO $102.3BB
D $101.8BB
SB $103.6BB
BB $78BB
Preflop
5$1.5BBHero is UTGJJ
Hero raises to 3BB, 1 fold, BTN raises to 10BB, 2 folds, Hero calls7BB
Flop
2$21.5BB357
Hero checks, BTN bets 14BB, Hero calls14BB
Turn
2$49.5BBK
Hero checks, BTN checks
River
2$49.5BBK
Hero checks, BTN bets 30BB, (Hero)?
thetallpaul

Last Post 8 years ago by

thetallpaul

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Posted 8 years ago
I would fold the river.

Most villains would bluff the K turn with a hand like AQ AJ. When he checks I think it's possible that he's pot controling a weaker Kx and is going for value on the river.

If he has any other weaker showdown value he would almost always check behind on the river.

Generally bet check bet lines are less likely to be bluffs than when they continue barreling.
Posted 8 years ago
I think Turlock summed it up pretty well, some % of the time we may see AQ/AJ on the river, but most of the time it will be just as Turlock said.
Posted 8 years ago
Looks like a QQ maybe TT hand. Some AQ yeah maybe I don't think Kx now checks this turn they would be betting to charge draws and underpairs to the K.

I think I would be calling river but not expecting to win more than 35% or so. Having AA AK KQ this would be an odd line for them to check back the turn though it does happen.
Posted 8 years ago
Hmm tough one. I'm a little confused as to how people are ranging this? What would you make an anon 3bet v UTG then on this site as that will determine where you go from here. I think I would make it KK+, some SC's, some Axs, maybe AJo or KJs or KQo I suppose.

His flop bet means probably very little as in 3bet pot this flop is not great for calling range as overpairs make a lot of the value range and he has them all vs your capped range. You didn't raise so FD's he can largely discount as well I reckon. I think he would barrel this card with a lot of his air and rep the king. I think he checks here because he has Kx and wants a bet on the river, or he has QQ or JJ and was scared you floated AK.

However when he checks back turn and then you check the river he basically knows you don't have a king. So he can bet his Kx but also his underpairs for thin value (as he has only JJ+ and you might have JJ-99.

AA and KK are also possible but pretty weird. All in all I think I fold this vs an anon.