LFCchris:
As you say hes a little on the passive side so to expect half of those hands is optimistic if he has hands like J9s K9s , your expecting him to have an RFI UTG of somewhere around 15% - 20% , i just don't think its any where near that.
You also have to consider how often we get squeezed when we call here if we are calling a wide range from these positions , i think KJs is right on the edge of call or 3bet , personally i much prefer 3betting it from MP vs UTG , its certainly not a mistake to call it though i wouldn't think.
CrazyCookie:
Lol this is bs. There are so many variables postflop that you cannot just say that you need x percentage to make preflop 3b better than a call!
3b will be +EV sure, but when we flat we have all his KTs K9s, JQs JTs, J9s and all his small pp. So when we make to we dominate more of villains range. Moreover this hand is perfect for floating a lot of boards because it will have a drawbof some kind a lot or will block most of his TP combos (KQ/qjon qx, AK/aj on ax). This means we will have quite a high EV call on a lot of flop textures and given we are in position will be able to bet when checked to and win on a lot of board textures.
You can have a strategy where you have at as a 3b bluff sure, but I would rather use this and some other BW combos, pp and ATs-AQs to negate villains advantage on Ax, kx and qx flops and because none of these hands are loving life in a 3bp with TP. They either don't win any more money v smaller pp or are beat a lot.
Never said the 3b was bad, I just think that having it in a calling range will be a higher EV espically given the 2x raise from a passive fish.
Also in terms of getting folds... He is opening 13% of hands and is utg... I don't know if our fold equity even makes this amazing +EV as a 3b bluff.
Danwan: Even if we have about 40% equity with KJs vs villains continuing-range its still more profitable to 3-bet them instead of flatting them he says.
Lol this is bs. There are so many variables postflop that you cannot just say that you need x percentage to make preflop 3b better than a call!
3b will be +EV sure, but when we flat we have all his KTs K9s, JQs JTs, J9s and all his small pp. So when we make to we dominate more of villains range. Moreover this hand is perfect for floating a lot of boards because it will have a drawbof some kind a lot or will block most of his TP combos (KQ/qjon qx, AK/aj on ax). This means we will have quite a high EV call on a lot of flop textures and given we are in position will be able to bet when checked to and win on a lot of board textures.
You can have a strategy where you have at as a 3b bluff sure, but I would rather use this and some other BW combos, pp and ATs-AQs to negate villains advantage on Ax, kx and qx flops and because none of these hands are loving life in a 3bp with TP. They either don't win any more money v smaller pp or are beat a lot.
Never said the 3b was bad, I just think that having it in a calling range will be a higher EV espically given the 2x raise from a passive fish.
Also in terms of getting folds... He is opening 13% of hands and is utg... I don't know if our fold equity even makes this amazing +EV as a 3b bluff.
As you say hes a little on the passive side so to expect half of those hands is optimistic if he has hands like J9s K9s , your expecting him to have an RFI UTG of somewhere around 15% - 20% , i just don't think its any where near that.
You also have to consider how often we get squeezed when we call here if we are calling a wide range from these positions , i think KJs is right on the edge of call or 3bet , personally i much prefer 3betting it from MP vs UTG , its certainly not a mistake to call it though i wouldn't think.
So by that logic his entire range is either crushing us, has 60% or 50%. When he crushes us we lose, when he has 60% we don't get much more than one Street and v still has equity and when he has 50% money only goes in when he has a set and we get crushed!!
Not seeing much sense in putting more money in preflop with that scenario
Alternatively we can call getting nice odds with a hand that can make monster hands and is up against a slightly weaker range and invite multiway action which I want with a hand that plays best in multiway small pots....