5NL - 99

Posted 8 years ago

Half-stacked anon player shoves. Easy call?

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$0.02/$0.05 No Limit Holdem Bovada
5 Players

Blinds$0.02/$0.055
UTG UTG $5.23
COHero $4.93
D Dealer $4.81
SB Small Blind $10.25
BB Big Blind $2.54
Preflop
5$0.07Hero is CO99
1 fold, Hero raises to $0.15, 2 folds, Big Blind goes all-in $2.54
Grocker6

Last Post 8 years ago by

Grocker6

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Posted 8 years ago
I think folding is better. He has some unpaired hands and maybe some 88 / 77 but he also might have some TT+. This looks a lot like AK, but even if it is AK/AQ etc. Against broadway 99 has 55%, against other pairs you are 20% .... it is costing you 2.39 into 5.15 less rake so you need 46% .... So from this you can work out he needs to have pairs only x% of the time...

80*.55 + 20*.22 = ~ 48%... so villain needs to have unpaired overs 80% of the time. Put these into a range calc software like pokerstove or something similar. Give him TT+ then see how many different combinations of overcards he needs to make it a 4:1 ratio of overs to pairs. I think you will find he needs to be as wide as hands like KJ / QJ which he likely isn't.
Posted 8 years ago
when we look at ranges this is probably a fold however I am just never open folding 99 vs a 50bb shove who I imagine is a fish
Posted 8 years ago
Fold.

For half a stack with so little dead money in the pot I would still be calling off a tight range. Do the EV calculations against a selection of ranges. You need him to be showing up with all kind of small pairs and suited connectors lower than a 9.
Posted 8 years ago
Personally I actually fold 99 here. I don't think it's a easy call. But I'm not saying I haven't got in 99 before PF vs large relative stacks than this, I have but only when I see the guy shoving PF regularly. Outside of that I still stick pretty close to my normal call off range, maybe JJ I add in if he seems pretty fishy as they often show up with smaller pairs after playing this way.