Without any specific read, I think I don't ch/call here anything. lol

Any reads on the player?

2-way I like your c-c more (but still folding) starting the flop 3-way and villan flat calling twice with a player left to act looks quite strong. Would be x-f the river.

I know your a good player @MilfGrinder , so i'm guessing your thinking along the lines of:
His range has JTs (4combo's) and 8Ts (4 combo's) then KQ and AQwhich has us beat but we block KQ and he 3bets a decent amount of AQ. Plus there's two queens on the board! He can also have slow played sets for sure, not a good play but lots of players will just call sets because they don't bluff raise enough at 50nl.


Sooo if he give him value range of : AQ (4), KQ (4), sets (3) that;s 11
and not all players will bluff here so cut out maybe 30% and cut out 50% 8Ts if he's not calling that: Gives 5combo's

So 11value/5bluffs for the population roughly.

So given the pot odds I would say fold, but it looks close to me.

If we have reads maybe that changes things a bit, like doe he call 8Ts, does he 3b AQ and KQ, does he slow play much and can be bluff missed draws. If we dont have these reads what a population reads?

Also think about our image, we have a bluff catcher here a lot when we bet into 2 people on the turn and don't jam the river. So My 30% estimation of people who don't bluff jam is actually proably way higher at like 50+% which would then make this a definate fold.

In game I think I would probably have called given the blockers and raw amount of value and bluffs he has when we check to him.

@Archinator Yeah, that's half of what I was thinking about. Other half was - what do I x/call here? Let's say my range is QQ+,99,77,AQs,QTs+,JTs,T8s,KsTs,AQo,KQo for 42 combos; Q10s, QJs I'd probably check earlier streets.
(sorry, KQs also is blue, human error)



I know villain is very value heavy here although he should be 3betting most AQ, KQ hands, he still got some of them + Q10s + QJs, I called because I know I got 12 combos of KK+ here here and what am I check/calling here? My QX dominates his QX, 1 quads that probably x/c for sure, 6 boats and 9 busted draws. If I x/f all of my KK+ I'm x/f most of the time and he can jam his J10s every time. So if check/fold 12 combos of KK+, I need ~12 combos of x/calls (and I still got 9 airs and most of them will x/folds as I don't have enough value hands to balance them if jammed).

If I jam a small range of:
(can switch AQo to 99/77 which is probably better)



I'm still left with 31 combo of which only 13 are clear x/calls. Now, if I x/call those KK that doesn't block Ks (he got Ks10s on river), I'm x/calling 16 combos and x/folding 15 so villain can't auto profit with jamming all of his bluffs. AA/KK has same strength on river, but avg villain is more likely to 3bet AQ than KQ, right? So having KK blockers are more relevant?

Range that checks: 31 combo


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Anyone on board with my though process?
Or lol math lol balance I should fold majority of my river checks at NL50/NL100? NL50 and lover I suppose yes.

@MilfGrinder

I think it's super rare players will exploit your range in this spot. I think you can therefore just think about your oponents betting range and make the exploitive fold.

Very good breakdown of the hand! You are so close to balance that it wont make the biggest difference here if you call KK or not. If you want more c/c to be absolutely sure that you are unexploitable you can take some of the AQ KQ hands and call once in while. You are more balanced to value in that jamming range you wrote 10/3 but if you want to have perfect balance you should have 6/3. So take 4 of those and put in the c/c range and you are balanced both in your VB range and Check range.