We block several combos of high flush draws with the Q spades. Went to SD is reasonably low Won at SD is moderate. 50/50 fold to cbet in 3b pots seems like he likes to hold on a bit... doesnt raise fold to 3b much (2/17 or 12%) so again view him as a stickier opponent... So opening 17% EP and folding the bottom 12% of that and 4b seems quite wide. I would discount AA KK QQ JJ AK we block AQss, AJss/Kjss does that call flop and play position? There is also 50/50 fold to 4b after 3b so can 3b bluff. This all should be relative to how you play and their opinion of you.

I would expect hands here as wide as AT, though also a reasonable amount of hands that do not have QQ beat, but that then comes down to what can they be?

As wet as the board is how do you feel about betting bigger on the turn?


As others will observe river pot shoves are polar - does he have it or doesn't he. I think in this spot he reps more BS than he does hands that beat us. What is more likely here, something like 99 or AK/AJ/AT/JT etc. We are asking him to have a lot of very specific combinations of AX spades here and I don't know that he does, and to peel a lot of AX hands on this flop which he really cant... AT is about it for non-spade hands but does he have that here?

I plan this hand in another way. I think it is a board on which we can frequently check but QQ is better to bet imo. But my plan with a hand like QQ will be bet Flop shove turn (easier and mabye maxEV).

Preflop my size is bigger, with a hand like QQ I'll size it big on the flop on that board and on turn I think QQ has enough equity (we are oop, folds are good even if he folds no better hands) to value/deny equity jam.

As played: well ugly river. I think in theory QQ is one of the obv x/c bluffcatcher, with your suits mabye one of the worst ones because of removal effects but villain has still hands in his range which want to bluff (or should bluff) like 8x, busted draws with lowcards etc.

I exploit tendencies on the river. Against unknown NL100 x/f seems fine because they not shove the 8x often enough. Against passive guy the same, against aggro, x/c is good but marginal.

Shoving the river is also "okaish", you block the nuts and spiked Ax are not good (because the A is not good for your range if you play the spot correct) and should be fold, but most villains fold Ax not often enough and if you do that too often call with Ax becomes a good play^^