NL10 99 squeeze pot

Posted 8 years ago

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We' ve been fighting with this oponent, so I called.

After he checked both flop and turn I guess I should've fired both turn and any non-scare river right?
Turlock

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Turlock

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Posted 8 years ago
^ Yes. I like betting Turn and River = 99 into a bluff.
With a X X line he doesn't have anything strong imo. and X, XC means it's often stuff just as he has. Don't think anyone checks the nuts twice here.

Either check it down for the slim SDV or bet bet turn river. Something like 3/3.50 might be good.
Another point is i might bet the flopped to a missed Cbet. Sure it hits his range but we find out soon enough with a double barrel and its believable we have this range too
Posted 8 years ago
If you're betting the turn I think we have to bet the river every time here to get them to fold hands like Kx and Tx. Their hand is a little face up as a weak 1 pair type hand, I'd have gone 90% pot on the river.

Checking turn and river for SDV is also fine as above.
Posted 8 years ago
Agree with the gentlemen above me that if you're betting turn you need to be betting river as well. This board hits his squeezing range really well with a bunch of strong hands and mediocre hands like Ax KQ KJ QT. By betting once you don't get any of those mediocre hands to fold and that's why you need the 2nd bet. The hands that you do get to fold by betting once are stuff like 88 that you beat already and will often just try to get to showdown anyways.

If you think villain will fold hands like A5 or KQ by the river then I'd say go for it but otherwise checking down should be +EV as well.
Posted 8 years ago
When he checks a flop like this he almost certainly has showdown value of marginal value, question is do you think he is capable of folding to two barrels? It's highly unlikely that only firing one will make him fold any part of his range so it's a wasted bet really.

Checking the hand down will be +EV as many players will have small pocket pairs in their 3 bet bluff range vs LP raises and they won't bluff on later streets, but I think firing turn and river will be a better line, even at 10NL where your fold equity might not be so high.