thetallpaul

Pre I suppose I could 4bet but vs short stack with that sizing I didn't think any need to and could iso myself vs a very strong range rather than continue vs wider one.

Flop is easy call. Turn sucks but happy to call again for small size. River triple barrel jam in 3bet pot when IP and able to check back though I think narrows the range a lot to 2 pair + and missed hearts so I have to fold.

BTN: $7.37 (VPIP: 15.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 20)
SB: $15.17 (VPIP: 17.78, PFR: 11.11, 3Bet Preflop: 5.88, Hands: 47)
BB: $3.72 (VPIP: 23.40, PFR: 21.28, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 49)
UTG: $11.39 (VPIP: 21.21, PFR: 18.18, 3Bet Preflop: 9.26, Hands: 134)
MP: $11.65 (VPIP: 29.49, PFR: 20.78, 3Bet Preflop: 16.13, Hands: 83)
Hero (CO): $10.05

SB posts SB $0.05, BB posts BB $0.10

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.15) Hero has Qc Ac
fold, fold, Hero raises to $0.30, BTN raises to $0.70, fold, fold, Hero calls $0.40

Flop : ($1.55, 2 players) Qs 9h 6h
Hero checks, BTN bets $0.74, Hero calls $0.74

Turn : ($3.03, 2 players) Jc
Hero checks, BTN bets $1.44, Hero calls $1.44

River : ($5.91, 2 players) 9c
Hero checks, BTN bets $4.49 and is all-in, fold

BTN wins $10.11

Last Post 8 years ago by

CrazyCookie

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https://www.pokervip.com/thread/view?forum=poker-strategy&slug=nl10z-aqs-5&nav=577ab709d39043ce308b45a1

I play this hand the same way. Don't like 4betting and getting AQ here, they are too deep to get AQ PF and think we're ahead.

No reason to raise the flop or turn, also no reason to fold. River draws brick and they should not expect us to fold Qx (which is what our hand looks like), when they shove I weigh their range to KK or better quite often.

Close to a call if they were fishy but 15/0 over 20 hands is quite weak-tight and reduces the amount of times they will bluff shove.

We only need 33% to be good here so assuming he does this with KK+ and all qx we have (15) over pairs, (1) QQ and (6) QJ combos. So we need 8 bluff/worse value combos to make profit. KQ (8) is enough without needing any bluffs, then you may also chop (6) v AQ.

OK he won't always 3b KQ pre, but he also won't with QJ so if he only 3b 6 combos of kq and 2 combos of QJ we are still making a +EV call including times we chop.

I think this is quite an easy call OTR as it is pretty close and fish are more likely to bluff shove here as they won't think we have in our range and will just panic shove klwhen they think they are behind. Therefore it being close without bluffs makes the call very easy IMO.

It is quite possible the worse hand in out calling range, KQ may well be just a fold. Also 20 hands is not anywhere jeelar a sample to look at.

Looks fine. Highly doubt the river is ever a call at these limits. Even turn is not the greatest spot given the action, so EV of turn call won't be high. River call would be a mistake at these limits imo.

Thanks guys.

@CrazyCookie I think you are missing some combos there as well. In 3bet vs CO range there could easily be some other value hands. T8s, J9s, K9s, Q9s plus some guys KTs, T9s, 98s etc. Its not just KK, AA and QJ. I also don't think he 3bets KQ and AQ always, these are better flats I think BTN vs CO.

I don't think its a snap fold by any means but I think you need him to have quite a few bluffs to make it pay off. Its close for me as I can also see him having a few FD's that could take this line.

If I filter my DB for when people cbet river though they win 83% of the time and 75% of the time at SD. People do not overbluff rivers at NL10z.

I was just taking the value combos that beat us and the ones that will triple barrel, not the rest as we need to find a breaking point v that range. Also 9x isn't likely to cbet and then double abrrel on a Q9xx board.

People in general won't over bluff no, but he can be cbetting some TP hands we have crushed so the 83% stats comes down significantly. Not saying its a huge +EV call at all, but we need so few combos of bluffs/ worse TP that I personally think we can call off.

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