I am playing the NL2 tables at 888, trying to sharpen up my game with hand analysis. I just played a hand where I raised for 3x from the CO with AhJd, I was 3bet from the BB and called with the resulting flop- Qh Th Ad. I was aware that AJo was likely to be dominated, but the player looked weak so I thought I would call and see a flop- he had played about twenty hands and had already 3bet twice before, so I dunno, I just didn't want to fold it, I basically had it in mind that if I hit an ace I would go with it. Having the gut shot and backdoor flush draw too, I went all-in, and he showed a set of tens and I missed the draws.

Anyway, my first reaction was that I had made a mistake. I have been trying to think in terms of hand ranges and equity in my off table analyses, how the ranges hit the flop etc, trying to be systematic in my approach to the game.When I counted how many cards in an normal overall 3bet range beat me on such a flop ( and people don't generally 3bet lightly at this limit), it came to 9/15, 2/15 we split the pot., I thought I should be crushed. But when I ran the equity calculator, giving the villain a 7.84% 3bet range, I found that I was basically even money on the flop, which came as a surprise.

I think that the conclusion for me is that my feel for equity is pretty faulty, and I am not factoring in the ability to make a nutted hand which was far greater mathematically than I imagined? I thought that writing this would help the lesson sink in! Also, if I am making a mistake in my analysis, I would appreciate the feedback.

Cheers