Awesome blog OP, I am in!
KQs hand: Against a fish this may be spew quite often. But for simplification let's assume this is a reg with half a stack for whatever reason:
I assume we might squeeze this range: TT+,AJs+,KQs,AQo+
Passivley villain should defend like this (assuming he opens around 18%): QQ-88,ATs+,KJs+,QJs,JTs,AQo+
It is a bit tight, but coldcaller helps him with the defends, so he must not defend theoretically optimal.
OTF we have a good range advantage, villain is capped and never has KK+ there. He has one Nut Draw, but all the other Draws are blocked from our KQ and the board. His best Hands are TT and QQ there. Barreling the flop with a high frequency is good. We will fold out all the equity share from his suited broadways and his Ax with no backdoor draw. To make your bet BE, he must fold at least 38%.
de.pokerstrategy.com
Board: Tc4d7c
Equity Win Tie
MP2 51.86% 51.86% 0.00% { JJ, 99-88, QdQh, QdQs, QhQs, TdTh, TdTs, ThTs, AcJc, AdTd, AhTh, AsTs, JdTd, JhTh, JsTs, AcKd, AcKh, AcKs, AcQd, AcQh, AcQs }
MP3 48.14% 48.14% 0.00% { KcQc }
Guess this is the range he continues with (55%). So our bet on the Flop is pretty much maxEV and very good.
OTT our equity shifts for a tremendous amount. Our shove needs to work at least 40% of the time, to BE. Villain definitley has to call at least JTs to not overfold there.
de.pokerstrategy.com
Board: Tc4d7c3h
Equity Win Tie
MP2 70.44% 70.44% 0.00% { JJ, QdQh, QdQs, QhQs, TdTh, TdTs, ThTs, AdTd, AhTh, AsTs, JdTd, JhTh, JsTs }
MP3 29.56% 29.56% 0.00% { KcQc }
So he will call our shove 48% of the time.
Let's calculate: 52% we will win the pot whichs leads to 0.52 * 23,25$ = 12.09$
48% we will get called with an equity of ~29.5% which leads to 0.48 * (0.295 * 63.25$ - 16.75$) = 0.91$
EV = 12.09$ + 0.91$ = 13$
(no rake included)
So against a tightish 50nl regular, jamming the turn there is good. To know if it is maxEV we would have to calculate the other options with us x/c Turn or shoving/xc River after Turn x/x on specific cards. But that would be touch too much I guess
Against a fish, our equity when called is around the same percentage, but obv a fish will call waaaay more often, so our FE, from which our play lives, just drops to zero, and the shove becomes -EV very, very quickly.
Hope this makes ense and I did not miss anything