AA vs Likely Rec player

Posted 6 years agoEdited 6 years ago

What do we think the best play here is on the turn? UTG limp calls. No idea what his range is but whatever it is I'm ahead of it, looks like a pretty major fish. Firing the flop standard I think. Loads of pairs, draws etc. Turn is a brick so fire again. Not sure why so small in hindsight. Seems like an error. When he raises though. He's probably got all the 2 pairs, JT, can't see him having sets. Ah blocks a few flush draws. But then he could be spazzing. Feels like a fold to me. I need him to have a lot of combos of spaz, or raising naked TP for me to be ahead of his range here.

But then, he is a rec player, I bet small possibly inducing him to spaz. We are slightly deep.

Hero (BB): 128.8 BB
UTG: 145.8 BB (VPIP: 69.23, PFR: 25.64, 3Bet Preflop: 20.00, Hands: 40)
MP: 132.6 BB (VPIP: 23.86, PFR: 15.91, 3Bet Preflop: 6.98, Hands: 89)
CO: 202.6 BB (VPIP: 33.87, PFR: 16.13, 3Bet Preflop: 3.45, Hands: 64)
BTN: 115 BB (VPIP: 20.00, PFR: 12.73, 3Bet Preflop: 13.04, Hands: 55)
SB: 126.6 BB (VPIP: 23.53, PFR: 14.71, 3Bet Preflop: 5.71, Hands: 277)

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has Ah Ad
UTG calls 1 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 4.2 BB, UTG calls 3.2 BB

Flop : (8.8 BB, 2 players) Ks Qh 9h
Hero bets 6.6 BB, UTG calls 6.6 BB

Turn : (22 BB, 2 players) 3c
Hero bets 11 BB, UTG raises to 36 BB, ?
thetallpaul

Last Post 6 years ago by

thetallpaul

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Posted 6 years ago
I think it is a very close spot between calling and folding and would lean towards calling against this kind of player. Folding against a jam on the river
Posted 6 years ago*
I've started making it 5x preflop over a limper with my best holdings, particularly if deeper, nobody cares and I still get 3 callers. If that happens I just go to 6x ...

I'd be very surprised to see your small bet inducing a spazzout from this type of player, just really unlikely, fishy players just don't really care much for bet sizes a lot. A smaller bet may encourage them to call a weak draw more often but very rarely do they raise it. Remember villain profile is passive.
Turn raises from casuals is very nutted nearly always or 2P+. Villain could conceivably be overplaying something, but then we're still guessing at that and what river would we like and how much are we willing to pay villain off if they fire again on another blank?

Fold for me, (tough to do on a bad day, easy on a good day, stack off when titled) and move on. But it's aces(!), that's so exploitable! Yep, I know, but not by this guy.

Posted 6 years ago
Cool, thanks guys. I was on a good run, so I mucked those rockets and went about my day!