KQ, NL16

Posted 7 years ago

http://www.handconverter.com/hands/3073981

I am not happy with my line? Any suggestions?
MattVIP

Last Post 7 years ago by

MattVIP

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Posted 7 years ago
What do you not like about it?

I think the 3bet pre is whatever. Preference and situation really. I personally call this hand BUvMP but a lot of people like using it as a 3b bluff here. I call this and AJo and 3b bluff with ATo and KJo. However, if you have some squeeze happy blinds who are gonna put you in a tough spot or if you know MP is a fish then 3betting its fine, or if you just prefer it.

Flop: Well MP donks for ~3/4 pot. Kind of strange. I think typically when someone donks like this they tend to have big hands or good draws. Occasional some rec players will do it with TP or just random stuff. So you have 4 combos JTs, 3 combos each of 88 and 99 1 combo QQ and 2 combos 98s and maybe 2 combos each of Q9s and Q8s. I doubt he has either of those, would be pretty lose, but hey the guy is 3/4 donking into a 3b pot so who knows. So looks like you have ~17 combos of hands that have you in pretty bad shape. Some other hands he might do this with would be 6 combos each of JJ and TT, maybe something like QTs or QJs T9s, J9s where he has TP +GS. So could be upwards of 20 combos that you are doing well against. Also could have some AQ that is dominating you though, so IMO you don't have much option other than call the flop. You have a good hand but there is quite a bit out there that has you in pretty bad shape and just don't think you are wanting to get stacks in with this hand just yet

Turn: Not gonna get into all the combos but the 9 does reduce some combos of nut hands and his sizing does go down, but not sure that means anything, but certainly making it look more likely he has on one of those draw type hands. Not sure if jamming turn here would be good. I feel like I would just call here again.

River: He checks which doesn't mean he doesn't have a monster but you would think with like 1/2 pot left he would just jam his straights and boats. So I guess question is: Can you jam river for value? Not sure, you would need him to call with hands like JJ and TT and some worse Qx for sure. I don't think I would jam this. basically you need to realize about 35% with this jam. So if my thinking is correct you need to win ~1 out of 3 times when you jam. its like 1 out of every 2.85 times, whatever. So need to find enough worse hands he would call, not that he has, but would actually call with. Not sure you will find enough.
Posted 7 years ago
if the jam is purely for value i need to be good more than 50% of time. Thank you for your deep analysis.
Posted 7 years ago
I would bet river ... if you are not wanting to jam then even betting $4 gets value from some hands that dont want to be bluffed for getting 4:1 or better
Posted 7 years ago
Other than the fact that 3betting this vs. MP might not be the best choice (though you have perfectly good blockers if bluff 3betting was your intention) your line looks totally fine.