NL 25 KK

Posted 8 years agoEdited 8 years ago

Hey all, this is a hand I've been chatting to @nicamstereo about that he played.
I'm wondering what you think the player makes the bet on the river with at the end?
As his preflop continuing range either has the nuts, or TT can check to showdown. And his AhQh hands maybe checkraising flops more. So either that that turns hand into bluff or the nuts that is making a bluffy looking bet to level opponent into a call? Small PP's I just don't see that often either? It's a tiny possibility but mostly they fold pre and might x/c flop anyway.

Also how would you guy's play this hand yourselves?

I've given nicam my full analysis but interested to hear other people's views.

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nicamstereo

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Posted 8 years ago
Without stats their preflop range gets a little merky, my calling range here UTG facing a 3bet would be TT-QQ/ and sometimes KK-AA/AQ+ depending on how I perceived villain.

However, it's not uncommon to see some regs call UTG with AJo/KJ/JTs and other hands at these levels.

River overbet I give the benefit of the doubt and fold (fully expecting to see Jx). I can't remember the last time a reg made a 150% pot bet with a bluff,esp since they should expect us to call with QQ-AA some % of the time when they make this bet.
Posted 8 years ago
Sorry I have no stats as Party now uses Player 1 and player 2 etc, which is how it translates into HM2. I only have my notes. I think villain is a reg but to date no notes on him to date which most likely means he hasn't done anything out of the ordinary as yet.
I find that most regs call 3 bets, even OOP with a lot of pairs down to 77 and even less, so 99 cant be discounted I feel.
Posted 8 years ago
First off I think I'm continuing betting Turn for value, we can get called by some std 89 9T combos that i see players call 3bs with OOP and TT QQ, we can comfortably get 2 streets flop and Turn from those hands. If we play bet check bet when the river comes a brick instead of a 9 our hand is going to be pretty much face up and we can get jammed on which puts us in a disgusting spot. If we bet Turn and get raised we can make a fold never expecting villain to be bluffing especially since we have the Kh.

As played, the problem is were pretty capped (we don't have many Jx other than J9s that would play this way) it depends if we think villain would use this size as bluff with hands like 55-88 something like that.

Id likely make the fold and give credit to villain for having quads or boats with AJs KJs type hands being reasonably likely and trying to get max value vs our over pair / A high.
Posted 8 years ago
Curl-1-out: First off I think I'm continuing betting Turn for value, we can get called by some std 89 9T combos that i see players call 3bs with OOP and TT QQ, we can comfortably get 2 streets flop and Turn from those hands. If we play bet check bet when the river comes a brick instead of a 9 our hand is going to be pretty much face up and we can get jammed on which puts us in a disgusting spot. If we bet Turn and get raised we can make a fold never expecting villain to be bluffing especially since we have the Kh.

As played, the problem is were pretty capped (we don't have many Jx other than J9s that would play this way) it depends if we think villain would use this size as bluff with hands like 55-88 something like that.

Id likely make the fold and give credit to villain for having quads or boats with AJs KJs type hands being reasonably likely and trying to get max value vs our over pair / A high.


Pretty much the exact thing I said to nicam privately when talking about this. Bet folding the turn would be better as we can achieve getting the value, and finding out with more certainty it's not a bluff without risking nearly as much.
Posted 8 years ago*
I'd cbet bigger 3.60-3.80 on the flop, what's does the 1/2 pot achieving that 3/4 wouldn't I wonder? Just a thought.

As played, I think once I make a weak cbet and check turn I'm opening myself up to being bluffed and not a lot I can do about it except fold I think, don't like to hero call versus virtual unknown.
In this case the fold is easier for me because I have no real usable info about my opponent.

So for me this straightforward, but then I'm a nit and try to keep it very simple;
Cbet 75-80% flop
Cbet 2/3 turn
Chk behind/give up river and not blink if they bet, especially overbet.



Posted 8 years ago
Definitely prefer a much larger c bet on that texture flop; at least 66%

The turn is the key to making your life easier. The only reason to check is that we think by inducing bluffs it's more EV than a plain value bet, or that we can't bet for value in the first place. The thing is we can easily value bet here which will mostly lead to villain checking to us on the river giving us the option to check behind. By betting we also protect ourselves from getting bluffed on the river which is worth probably just as much as inducing bluffs by checking.
Posted 8 years ago*
Its interesting that you say bet bigger, I thought that it is not necessary in 3bet pots to bet much more than 1/2 pot as it makes stacks awkward and betting around 1/2 pot can easily get stacks in by the river if wanted. Yes I can clearly see that I should have bet turn.
Thanks for replies.
Posted 8 years ago
nicamstereo: Its interesting that you say bet bigger, I thought that it is not necessary in 3bet pots to bet much more than 1/2 pot as it makes stacks awkward and betting around 1/2 pot can easily get stacks in by the river if wanted. Yes I can clearly see that I should have bet turn.
Thanks for replies.


Back in the glory days of 2006 half pot on flop and turn to shove river was standard but people realised they were missing too much value. Also you can't auto bet bet bet overpairs in 3 bet pots in the micros any more like used to be the norm, so getting better value on flop and turn works better.
Posted 8 years ago
I am only ten years behind times then, lol