89ss 3b pot deep

Posted 8 years ago

ebsmb was a semi fish that had been playing pretty spewy, opted not to 3b because he had made huge 4bs a couple of times already and I was happy to play a squeezed pot with this hand if thats how it played out. BB was playing pretty aggro / active, he has some kind of value hand when he squeezes vs this semi fish.

Other than that info nothing to go on, wondering what you guys think best option is here and maybe what range we can give both these guys leading to a better decision as to what type of equity we actually have should we choose to either call or re jam?

Not discounting the fold either.


Hand Conversion Powered by WeakTight Poker Hand History Converter
$0.50/$1 No Limit Holdem Prima
6 Players

Blinds$0.50/$16
UTG _Targa_ $100
UTG+1 XMage $106.23
CO ebsmb $80.35
DHero $249.39
SB jakifkusto $147.19
BB ILuvAubergines $219.04
Preflop
6$1.50Hero is BTN89
2 folds, ebsmb raises to $2, Hero calls$2, 1 fold, ILuvAubergines raises to $9, ebsmb calls $8, Hero calls$8
Flop
3$30.50563
ILuvAubergines checks, ebsmb goes all-in $70.35
Final Pot$100.85

Turlock

Last Post 8 years ago by

Turlock

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Posted 8 years ago
Right now I'm actually thinking this is a clear fold if we assume ebsm is jamming flush draws which is pretty likely but he was defo bad enough to be jamming any pair on that board.
Posted 8 years ago
Looks pretty clear fold. You get like 43% odds, and even against such weak range as 77,33,A6s-A5s,Ad4d,Ad2d you only have 47%, I assume his range will be a bit stronger in reality. Keep in mind squeezer can have nut flush draws, overpairs that he traps fish and even some guys squeeze low pp's there. With that in mind, just fold.
Posted 8 years ago
Good analysis ^. Clear fold with the reg in the hand 220bb deep with a 9 high flush draw.
Posted 8 years ago
Had a little help with this one and we agreed that its really unlikely that pre flop aggressor is planning on trapping here here with these stack sizes and we can expect a check fold if he faces a re jam from me a very high percentage of the time. Yes he can play AA KK this way but not often at all and we have good equity vs those hands, yes he could check nut flush draws but its not a great plan and again is pretty unlikely.

Given those assumptions we just need to figure if we can in fact re jam vs fish:

http://www.pokerstrategy.com
Board: 6d3d5s
Equity Win Tie
MP2 47.27% 46.89% 0.38% { 9d8d }
MP3 52.73% 52.36% 0.38% { 99-22, 87s, KdQd, KdJd, QdJd, KdTd, QdTd, JdTd, Ad7d, Ad6d, Ad5d, Ad4d, Ad2d }

We need to 41% to make the call, thats probably the strongest of ranges we can give him as he was a semi fish not a total pre flop clown that would have any given flush draw here, I left out the other A4s combos too.
So it looks like we can re jam here and hope pre flop aggressor mucks.
I also think its important to take into account something I read a few years ago about taking spots to get the fishes money when your given the opportunity, there's usually 4/5 regs trying to get that cash so its crucial to some times ''gamble'' which this spot is not but should play into your thought process to make sure you get those BBs before the others do. (If I can remember where I read it I will link it because it was a concept I hadn't given much thought previously)

Just to highlight, even if pre flop aggressor has played the hands you mention, over pairs and nut flush draws with the intention of check calling my re jam we still have decent equity in a huge 3 way pot. I've left out the small PPs that would have flopped sets because this wasn't the guy to be 3bing those hands with and again is really unlikely that they get played this way.

http://www.pokerstrategy.com
Board: 6d3d5s
Equity Win Tie
MP2 31.66% 31.36% 0.30% { 9d8d }
MP3 27.19% 26.87% 0.32% { TT-22, A4s, 87s, KdQd, KdJd, QdJd, AdTd, KdTd, QdTd, JdTd, Ad7d, Ad6d, Ad5d, Ad2d }
CO 41.14% 40.90% 0.24% { KK+, AdKd, AdQd, AdJd, AdTd }
Posted 8 years ago
I'm more than happy to jam this expecting BB to be able to fold an overpair for over 200bb. It's basically a coinflip vs him anyway, and with any kind of moderate fold equity we're easily +EV. If the short stack is jamming anypair here plus some 54 type stuff then we're laughing. We can also probably discount a lot of his nutted combos once he overbets making it much simpler.