I like

I think either 4betting or folding are both fine, don't like calling with players left to have with ace high. My default here would be to cold 4bet to around 25bb and stack off as we block AA/KK and games are aggressive enough at 25nl to make this play.

4b is more profitable for sure. Utg standard range we block AA KK, CO looks on the aggro side of tag and can be 3b a lot of Axs kjo type hands. Again we block AA KK. Think folding isn't loads worse but we definitely miss some value here.

Folding is not fine. We block AA and KK plus we are on the button so our squeezes get way less respect. This is a very easy 4b and go with it spot

Not sure it's going to be as good as you think :') like sure the cold 4b is good and +EV but not because we love it when we gii. With this exact hand we lose if we always gii preflop as they have AK, QQ+ so our equity is what like 35%? (On phone ATM no EV calc).

The EV comes from fold equity which this has quite a lot of.

I would say thats quite a good spot to cold 4bet bluff, if UTG or CO shoves we fold.

Cold 4b vs 7% 3b? Over only 233 hands the 3b stat doesnt mean much.

AKo flips vs a 6% GII range.

So the 4b folds AQ / TT and maybe some JJ and gets QQ+ to stack.

If initial raiser is opening 15% what is his 5b GII? We need to consider that also. 4%? AKo vs 4% is 43%, so 25% of the time the initial raiser can have a hand they are happy to 5b, and the 3b'er has a hand a lot of the time they will get in with an equity edge over AKo, so how is this a +EV spot?

I think this is better to just fold pre... these ranges are quite tight. If he is 3b 14% and has the capacity to 5b light then sure 4b if they have reason to believe we can 4b light, but there is no evidence of this anywhere. Expect only a value heavy range which has AKo really not doing great. It is 100 bb stacks pre and AKo all in pre here is really not great.

4b bluff blockers is an option but why risk say $7 on the 4b to win a bit over $3? Do we get two folds more than 60% of time from both players?

Review the EV of spots where AKo has been 4b against a 3b range like this and got it in pre.... I think you will find if you are stacking here long term you are losing money in these spots or, if not, please correct me if I am wrong.

lol. Cute thinking.

With AK we are blocking a significant portion of UTG's 5 bet shoving range. We arent planning to 4bet and call a jam, instead this is an ideal spot to cold 4bet as a bluff.

I think its safe to assume we are cold 4 betting AA/ KK here for value, which makes up 12 combos . To construct our range, we need some bluffs. Therefore, its a great idea to have 16 combos of AK in this particular spot as a bluff.

Oh btw, cold 4 bet usually reps a really narrow range, therefore 4 betting to ard 22bb would be good enough ( $5.5)

Have a nice day.

Thanks for the clarification and the dose of smug

I'm in the 4bet/fold camp. I really hate that line in general with AK but I think it's pretty safe to assume you're likely only being shoved on by AA/KK a huge amount of the time.

We can go over some math... I haven't done this before, let's see how it goes.

Let's assume UTG opens 12% which becomes 10.7% once you consider your blockers to his entire range.

I see the 3bettor has a 7% 3bet but given he's against UTG we'll assume it's tighter and estimate maybe 4%. That becomes 3.4% after blockers.

Then with your blockers AA and KK is 0.5%.

You get shoved on by UTG 0.5/10.7 = 4.7% of the time.

You get shoved on by CO 0.5/3.4 = 14.7% of the time.

So your 4bet works (1-0.047)(1-0.147) = 81% of the time.

Let's say you're 4betting to $5 so you're risking $5 to win $3.4 meaning you need to win more than 5/(5+3.4) = 59.5% of the time. Looks profitable to me!

Of course numbers change as ranges change and if we tighten each players range this becomes less profitable and if we loosen them then it becomes more profitable and maybe even becomes a 4bet/call depending on how much we mess with it.

That was fun. Hopefully I didn't screw anything up too bad there, it's pretty late here

12% range is 66+, A7s+, KTs+, QJs, ATo+, KQo this seems way too wide for a UTG open... I think it would be important to consider that the raw PFR % is inflated in relation to the steal %.

My PFR is higher than this and I am not opening ATo A7s-A9s QJs KTs KJs etc. UTG in online 6 max games.

Another consideration is that when we 3b to $5 we have no guarantees that players will not decide to stick around and hold on with hands like 99... If 100% of the time they responded as though we had AA KK and some bluffs and only put it in with the hands we are trying to represent we can look at these spots in a simple linear fashion - We 3b pre to $5 and they fold X% and shove Y% therefore our fold equity yields a profit or loss Z which determines the correct action.

In my experience it is not quite so simple. Villains can feel they have a read on the spot and decide to hold on with TT on a 693Jr board to a cbet and a shove.

I like the idea of 4b bluffing AKo using blockers, I do not necessarily agree that this is the spot to do it.

??
If they decide to flat oop with QQ-99 whats the problem?
We are in such an awesome spot with AK in position lol, whats your point.

I open ~16% UTG and I'm not super loose. I chose 12% assuming it's on the tighter side. The fun thing with that math is you can do it over with any ranges you want. I'm guessing that since the result was over 80% and you only need 60%, there's room to play around with the ranges and still be profitable.

I just did a rough estimate, if we get 5bet bluff sometimes then you can take that into account in the give ranges. If they 5bet bluff enough you can call off AK rather than folding it. I also didn't account for each player in the blinds waking up with a hand which would mean we get folds slightly less often.

If villain decides to flat with hands like 99 that's fine. AK has good equity against those mid-high pairs. If they're calling 99 then there's a good chance they're calling AQ as well. You'll likely end up in a postflop situation IP against a very defined range which should be relatively easy to play against.