15 hand isn't really a sample to look at their fold to 3bet, I may just call here as they are UTG and we are deep, don't think 3betting is a mistake though.


Flop is fine, on the turn if we were 100bb deep I'd be calling it off, 160bb I'm a little worried about KQ and TT/77. I'd call again and prob stick it in on safe rivers because they can have JT/AT/A7 too.

I expect often enough this is KQ, though sure sometimes AT / AQ / AK etc. Calling $3.80 into what would be $17.60 we have to be into AT AQ AK with a low enough frequency to call. I think this is KQ but it is likely not KQ 80%+. We have 8% vs KQ.

On a board that coordinated I might go a touch bit bigger than $1.35 as they would call wider here because this is a board we would be betting AK AQ type combos a tonne, so I would go bigger expecting to get peeled by 1 pair type hands a lot.

The more I look at this the more I am inclined to think the turn he is nutted and this is more likely KQ.. He is keeping back a 1/2 pot sized bet for river. I will have a bit of a think about this and get back to it. I have to be off now.

I thought I could edit the above post. I think vs this guy running the 60/50 I would call the raise and call any river. He will have some KQ / 89 but there is going to be enough worse 2 pair combos he maybe having a spazz with that will let them shovel in the last of their stack. Calling turn and checking river allows him to bluff for a 1/2 pot bet.

This guy looks bad so I'm happy 3 betting, but you always need to be careful 3 betting offsuit Ax OOP, things can get a little iffy. I would still probably call as standard.

There's a lot of strong hands which make sense for his turn raise, but I'm still calling to re-evaluate the river. There's still a fair few worse aces up combos.

On the river I'm probably going to fold if a diamond comes or a 4 straight.