NL10 AKs

Posted 8 years ago

Do you think the river fold was pretty decent?
In my experience after I bet the turn and can have all the hands that I do, why would he lead the river as a bluff?
I don't think I can ever be winning here and I do think he can play a set this way.

Player 5(SB) $10.05 - VP:50 PFR:0 AF:1.0 W:0| STL: 3B:0|0 CB: N:3.95 Hands:2
Player 6(BB) $7.49 - VP:43 PFR:14 AF: W:50|100 STL:100| 3B:0| CB: N:0.88 Hands:7
Me(BTN) $10 - VP:21 PFR:16 AF:2.4 W:25|61 STL:49|78 3B:5|59 CB:53|54 N:-0.64
Player 1(UTG) $10 - VP:0 PFR:0 AF: W: STL:0| 3B:0| CB: N:-0.40 Hands:8
Player 2(MP) $10.67 - VP:63 PFR:25 AF:Inf. W:50|0 STL:33|100 3B:0|100 CB:0| N:-0.06 Hands:8
Player 3(CO) $12.65 - VP:50 PFR:38 AF: W:50|0 STL:50|50 3B:0|0 CB:0| N:-1.50 Hands:8


Pre Flop: Me(BTN) with [A,K]
Player 1(UTG) folds,
Player 2(MP) calls 0.10,
Player 3(CO) raises 0.40,
Me(BTN) raises 1.20,
Player 5(SB) calls 1.15,
Player 6(BB) folds,
Player 2(MP) folds,
Player 3(CO) calls 0.80


Flop: (3,8,4)(3 players)
Pot - 3.80
Player 5(SB) checks,
Player 3(MP) checks,
Me(BTN) checks


Turn: K (3 players)
Pot - 3.80
Player 5(SB) checks,
Player 3(MP) checks,
Me(BTN) bets 1.60,
Player 5(SB) calls 1.60,
Player 3(MP) folds


River: 9 (2 players)
Pot - 7
Player 5(SB) bets 3.50,
Me(BTN) folds

ArtyMcFly

Last Post 8 years ago by

ArtyMcFly

6

Posts

2,135

Views

Copy post URL
https://www.pokervip.com/thread/view?forum=poker-strategy&slug=nl10-aks-17&nav=57485665d390438b068b459d
0
Posted 8 years ago
I would have called this. Villain should be betting the turn after check the flop with his nutted hands. I think this could well be a pot controlling river lead with weaker Kx some of the time.

It could be a set sure, but even if he doesn't want to raise the turn I'd still expect him to bet himself most of the time.
Posted 8 years ago*
If our friend here had a set then after chk/chk/chk flop and chk/chk turn when you bet they will raise a set a lot of the time, particularly multiway. It's very hard for a microstakes player to chk turn again for deception except maybe to chk/r, even if the board is dry they just find betting irresistible most times imo.

I'd call this from a virtual unknown.

Posted 8 years ago
I would doubt villain is going to show us many sets here at all given how passively the hand has been played. It's not beyond the realms of possibility that he is turning missed diamonds into a bluff here, and can also be taking weird lines with worse Kx as well. It's not exactly a fist pump call by any stretch and you will definitely be beaten by some suspect 2 pair combos on occasion but you're calling 3.50 into a pot of 10.50, I would be almost positive here that you are getting the right price to click the call button here.
Posted 8 years ago
For the price I'd call but I'm not super happy about it. If it is a set I reckon its 99. I can't see them check calling turn with the nuts. If they do why wouldn't they do the same on the river? If they did donk a strong range then would go bigger surely? This looks like pot control to me. Kx or maybe even like TT/JJ that doesn't want to check call a decent sized river bet.
Posted 8 years ago
I wouldn't on this texture vs. such a small sizing especially because your hand is so underrepresented given that you binked the turn after passive flop action.
Posted 8 years ago
Nothing makes sense. Villain is almost certainly a fish. Since this is the third best hand in my range, and villain can have a lot of trash and very few better hands (he might have another AK too), I pretty much snap call. Normally, the river donk is very strong, but in this spot it looks like baloney.