NL10 9c9d

Posted 8 years ago

Anon v nearly any two whale 89/4/6

Looks like a no plan hand again to me in hindsight, gg me.

I'm sure I should have barreled this for two streets but what about three? This guy has shown the nuts to me twice times doing this, but do I just call it off and move on regardless?
Yes he can have 2x quite easily...

...and yes, these are the guys that own my soul. Laugh

Thanks.


Hand Conversion Powered by WeakTight Poker Hand History Converter
$0.05/$0.10 No Limit Holdem Prima
5 Players

Blinds 0.5BB/1BB5
UTG $103.3BB
COHero $194.1BB
D $210.4BB
SB $93.9BB
BB $107.4BB
Preflop
5$1.5BBHero is CO99
UTG calls 1BB, Hero raises to 4BB, BTN calls 4BB, 2 folds, UTG calls 3BB
Flop
3$13.5BB282
UTG checks, Hero bets7BB, BTN folds, UTG calls 7BB
Turn
2$27.5BB6
UTG checks, Hero checks
River
2$27.5BB7
UTG goes all-in 92.3BB, (Hero)?
Pwll

Last Post 8 years ago by

Pwll

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Posted 8 years ago
Against a whale I'm betting all 3 streets with an over pair.
If your beat your beat but I think the majority of the time your ahead.
I don't over analyse these situations against whales but that's just ne
Posted 8 years ago
Checking the turn seems like a spot we're giving up a lot of money. Like above I would have bet 3 streets.

As played river is a turbo fold for me, 4x the pot and the guy is playing 89/4, he pretty much always has at least 3-of-a-kind here.
Posted 8 years ago
I'd just try to go bet bet bet on this board. An overpair vs an 89/4 is basically the nuts. Against this type of player I would also increase my betsize so I'd go maybe 9 on the flop.

I'm a pretty big calling station and I guarantee I call river a non-zero amount of the time but it's probably a fold if you haven't seen him do anything like that before. If he's done this a couple times already while you're been at the table then snapcall and enjoy your dollars.
Posted 8 years ago
Yep ok, thanks guys, maybe I should embrace the variance a little more. Smile
Posted 8 years ago
You need to embrace the value!
Just for fun I opened up flopzilla and though he hasn't played every hand I'm going to assume he has 100% of hands minus big pairs (since he's raised before in your sample) in his preflop range (that probably works against you since he'll have more 2x).

Against that entire range you have 79% on the flop, 82% on the turn.
If we assume he calls flop with any pair or better plus hands with 2 overcards which I think is reasonable for such a player you have 65% on the flop, 70% on the turn.
If we assume he only calls with pairs and better plus draws on the flop you have 58% on the flop and 59% on the turn.

In all cases you're doing great and that's even with EVERY SINGLE 2x possible in his range. Add to that the value you get with your fold equity any time he dumps a hand and it's a great situation to be in.

tl;dr: overpairs are the nuts Smile
Posted 8 years ago
Sigh, it must be fun to be good at this.

Thanks again guys.

Bowing