20nl AA 3bp - River shove?

Posted 8 years ago

Interested to see what people think about the river shove here, no info on villain unfortunately so just trying to play well here.


$0.10/$0.20 No Limit Holdem/5PLAYERS /PKR
Turlock

Last Post 8 years ago by

Turlock

4

Posts

2,376

Views

Copy post URL
https://www.pokervip.com/thread/view?forum=poker-strategy&slug=20nl-aa-3bp-river-shove&nav=5776aa6dd390435c3d8b45d1
0
Posted 8 years ago
Your post has missed off the river card.............
Posted 8 years ago
Jef147: Your post has missed off the river card.............


River was 4c
Posted 8 years ago
Need to bet bigger. If you bet 2/3 on the turn, there's and extra $4 in the pot and you're shoving 11 in $15 on the river instead. Try to plan out your bet sizing better. Plus the turn bet was giving him good odds with the flush draw
Posted 8 years ago
I think you played it OK, I would probably size up a little bit preflop. He's 4x'd from the button and it not likely to be raise folding for that amount very often. Post flop I like your sizings, you allow to get all of the money in very easily whilst offering villain a reasonable price to continue with a lot of his single Kx hands that are in serious trouble.

When the flush comes in on the river I'm not certain about the shove. However, I would assume you are never considering check folding here and villain is going to be checking back the majority of his showdown value that you beat so I think it's going to be better than checking.

Also - Annoying the way the hand messed up and didn't show the river correctly!!
Posted 8 years ago
mitchr1598: Need to bet bigger. If you bet 2/3 on the turn, there's and extra $4 in the pot and you're shoving 11 in $15 on the river instead. Try to plan out your bet sizing better. Plus the turn bet was giving him good odds with the flush draw


Agree I should bet a bit bigger OTT, although I was only shoving 13 into 20 OTR so don't hate it being €5. If villain has a fd he doesn't have the pot odds to call though... 50% bet means he needs 25% equity and a fd only has 19%. With implied odds however he needs to win about €5 OTR to make his call +EV.

I should make it around €7.5 to make a fd have an incorrect call as he needs to win €12 OTR and I would only have 10.5 behind. That being said, if I make it that size he may fold out some of his Kx and only continue with Jx fd which would have the implied odds to call, so it's not certain it would be better.
Posted 8 years ago
fergrberger: I think you played it OK, I would probably size up a little bit preflop. He's 4x'd from the button and it not likely to be raise folding for that amount very often. Post flop I like your sizings, you allow to get all of the money in very easily whilst offering villain a reasonable price to continue with a lot of his single Kx hands that are in serious trouble.

When the flush comes in on the river I'm not certain about the shove. However, I would assume you are never considering check folding here and villain is going to be checking back the majority of his showdown value that you beat so I think it's going to be better than checking.

Also - Annoying the way the hand messed up and didn't show the river correctly!!


re x/f... what is villain betting OTR that we beat? I think that x/f is correct as he checks back everything we beat and bets everything we lose to. We should probably make it like €3.5 and fold to a shove as he is never bluff shoving and won't value shove anything worse, but may call with Kx.Shoving I don't think is +EV OTR. I get called by flushes about 15 combos and therefore need him to call 16+ combos of Kx. AKo, I give 50% as he may call pre, (3) KQ (12) KTs (3). That totals 18 so we need him to call KTs after I 3b pre and triple barrel when the fd gets there. I don't think he does that ever. So shoving looks pretty bad, but a €3 may get KTs to call, maybe not and therefore I can never really value bet.

Agree I should make it bigger pre.
Posted 8 years ago
Shoving river looks a tad thin. I much prefer making a tiny bet of around $5 hoping for a crying call from AK KQ KTs, assuming that villain will almost never turn Jx TT into a bluff. Check folding is okay I guess but I'd much prefer going for thin value.

As for pre needing to be bigger, I'm not so sure. With his x4bb open I wouldn't be so keen to be looking so strong in a spot where we're 3 betting wide. Whatever little we gain pre we could possibly lose post flop by him finding an earlier fold with a marginal hand. I think your sizing is spot on.