Flop and turn sizes are a tiny bit wrong as my HM2 seems to include rake, pots size turn was 7.94.

x/c river ap

not sure about flop turn, I'm a bit lost with cbetting 3bet pots oop, so interested what others say.

Not too much wrong with being a habitual btn raiser Especially if the spot and hand is always correct for it.

Flop cbet isn't bad. But I'd go half and may a little higher.
I think turn bet should be higher. As he'll have some KJs, KTs in his range too and maybe floating flop cbet a lot.

AK we expect to 4bet pre anyway.

+1 to x/c as played though.

Pre: I like your're three bet here with this kind of hand.

Flop: We're going to be c-betting this board (and have missed it) quite often so I definitely like throwing out a bet here and I like your sizing also.

Turn: I would opt to go for a check call here to extract some value from villains Ax floats, as well as looking to get another street of value from his underpairs to the K as well. Betting here is almost certainly going to be profitable, but given how likely I would expect villain to be floating us on this flop I quite like the check line.

River: Pretty close decision now. I would probably just fire a third barrel here as it is hard to see how we are beat here. I would stick with the same kind of sizing we have been going for and betting around 50-60% of pot.

-10 for x/c OTR

No one is going to bluff shove OTR here enough at 25nl to make a call +EV. If they have TT JJ QQ they just check back, other Kx probably check back as the board has appeared to get a bit scary (not that we ever have anything nutted when we check OTR of course!)

I would go a bit bigger OTF myself given people will be calling with a fairly static range so wont change it much based on size, so might as well squeeze extra value out of worse Kx & PP and give draws a worse price.

AP Turn I would go bigger, and by quite a bit. We want to now really charge draws as they are the only "scary" thing out there. PP will likely fold and Kx is calling again.

OTR AP, we have slightly bigger than a PSB behind right? I would bet 5 and fold to a shove. Villain calls Kx, folds missed draws and shoves better. Love this kind of line at 25nl as we get max value from Kx maybe even QQ while not being in a shit spot when we check and he shoves or question if we have a +EV shove. You just HAVE to fold to a shove and not level yourself into calling. He won't bluff and if he does, then he is the minority

If villain is opening way too wide from the BTN then he's probably defending too wide as well making his range piss weak, unless you have a read saying otherwise. This makes me want to check call the flop.

As played I agree with @CrazyCookie about the tiny river value bet. Against most players it's tough to get three decent streets of value with a top pair type hand. By making a small value/blocking bet we should ensure we get calls from worse Kx and possibly QQ-TT if he's not able to work out what your line means. Micro players won't be turning medium pocket pairs into a bluff once you fire three streets. If you get shoved on it's a trivial fold.

This hand usually plays better as a flop check. Not super bad as a bet given your sizing though.

Plan should probably be to bet smallish on the river assuming a decent runout. So we still end up getting 3 streets, but not 3 full-sized streets, since it would be an overplay.

Interesting w34z3l, differing opinions on c betting, the thing is if I am checking this flop after 3 betting what am I c betting on a K53 tt?

I have got confused since I restarted playing, my c bet % is dropping. I have been playing with c betting ranges on certain flops in certain positions, working out my value c betting range and my bluff c betting range and then a check call and check fold range, but I have lost my way a tad.

I just wonder if I am checking this flop what am I betting?

Pretty much all AK combos, AA, then decent backdoor nut-flush and nut-straight-draws with bdfd. Also pretty much any 5x, 3x and maybe even occasionally stuff like TT.

Seems like an "easy" bet-bet-shove to me.

Flop
I am going to cbet this flop with a high cbet% and use small ~1/3psb sizing becaues we have range advantage and the board is really dry/static.

Turn
The board is getting quite wet so I would size up to 2/3 to 3/4psb to get value from his bluffcatchers and draws and to setup a shove OTR. I am not comfortable using smaller(which means we have to use multiple betsize strategy with our range) sizings esp. in 3bet pots.

River
It is a bit awkward as we now lose to a bunch of flushes A5hh,67hh,AJhh,AThh,KJhh,KThh,K9hh, a straight 67cc, 2 pair 98cc & K9s, and two to three sets 55,88,99 (depending on his BTN defending strategy), but I think we are too strong to check-fold, so I would shove and lose maybe 45% of the times when called. Good thing is that the frontdoor flush misses and V will not fold his TT,JJ,KJ,KT hands and we block good chunk of his nutted flushes with Qh.

TL;DR

It depends on how often the villain calls his JJ,TT and weaker kings. If he is the type of player that is scared to go to showdown, you can check-fold, but in a vacuum it is bet-bet-shove (55% equity vs a somewhat decent defense strategy).

Cliffs:

Btw if he raises A4hh,A2hh,76cc OTF, it becomes even more clear shove OTR.




If he has the hands mentioned above OTR and he folds TT & JJ to a river shove it becomes an easy check-fold.