NL10 JJ

Posted 8 years agoEdited 8 years ago

I've already spoken to someone about this hand, but I'd like to get an overall consensus about what you think a villain here at NL10 will show up with. The shove looks like he wants more folds maybe? I don't have any real info on the player though after 13 hands.

Player 6(SB) $13.98 - VP:0 PFR:0 AF: W:0| STL:0|100 3B:0| CB: N:-0.45 Hands:13
Player 1(BB) $10.15 - VP:43 PFR:29 AF: W:0| STL:50| 3B:0| CB:|100 N:-0.25 Hands:7
Me(CO) $10
Player 2(UTG) $11.72 - VP:54 PFR:8 AF:2.0 W:20|100 STL:0|100 3B:0|100 CB:|50 N:0.69 Hands:13
Player 3(MP) $9.13 - VP:15 PFR:0 AF:2.0 W:33|0 STL:0| 3B:0| CB: N:0.32 Hands:13
Player 5(BTN) $14.11 - VP:23 PFR:23 AF:Inf. W:0| STL:0|0 3B:40| CB:100| N:4.32 Hands:13

Pre Flop: Me(CO) with [Jc,Jd]
Player 2(UTG) calls 0.10,
Player 3(MP) folds,
Me(CO) raises 0.40,
Player 5(BTN) raises 1.20,
Player 6(SB) folds,
Player 1(BB) folds,
Player 2(UTG) folds,
Me(CO) calls 0.80


Flop: (6h,5d,3s)(2 players)
Pot - 2.65
Me(EP) checks,
Player 5(BTN) bets 1.75,
Me(EP) calls 1.75


Turn: 8c (2 players)#
Pot - 6.15
Me(EP) checks,
Player 5(BTN) bets 11.16,
Me(EP) ?
Grocker6

Last Post 8 years ago by

Grocker6

4

Posts

2,001

Views

Copy post URL
https://www.pokervip.com/thread/view?forum=poker-strategy&slug=nl10-jj-44&nav=5714cb24d39043e36d8b45ca
0
Posted 8 years ago
It has to be read dependent and game flow dependent. I will often load the replayer, find one hand they have played that went to showdown if I can, and make a judgement on that. The 40% 3b is huge, but only 13 hands so not a solid indicator... What did he show up with and how did the action play out in these hands this is crucial.

Otherwise I think maybe just fold. As I read it he is effectively putting you all in on the turn. You have $10 at the start of the hand so have $8.05 I think behind on the turn. You need to be good here equity wise 8.05 / (8.05*2+2.95) = 42%

Given board is rainbow it reduces options for him to be semibluffing AXs type hands, which people will do.

Vs TT/99 you have 96%, QQ-AA 4%, AK/AQ 87%, so he needs to have AK/AQ/TT type hands where your equity works out to be 42%.

Roughly this is a 55 / 45 spot in that he needs to have hands like AK AQ TT 45% of the time and AA-QQ 55 % of the time: 45*0.87+55*0.04 = ~41%

I haven't put in the TT/99 being 96% there, and there will be some random "wth" range, potentially much wider than others given the 40% 3b stat. From a combinations standpoint I think you can call, from the point of does he play all AK AQ TT hands the same as QQ KK AA I am unsure. He need to be fairly confident you will be folding overpairs a reasonable amount of the time to do this with unpaired hands or be spazzing a bit with underpairs.

I think readless fold, concede what maybe is a winning hand, keep back the $8 ceding the $2, get a better history with the guy, then revenge felt him.

You are likely losing and have 20bb invested with JJ, it is not a crime to let it go.

If he is bluffing you here, keep in mind you will see these spots come up again, and you will see him go to showdown with hands and so be able to make better judgements in the subsequent hands you play. This all said, likely in the hands he has played there is solid justification for calling here and expecting to be good. He is either card rushing or a nutcase action addict clicking buttons, very likely the 2nd.
Posted 8 years ago
Thanks @Joshk81 , basically this is kind of readless so on that basis I was just seeing what people think.
Posted 8 years ago
This is a fold.

You're right that he's looking for folds, but I would say that's because he's worried about a four straight appearing on the board regardless of how often you show up with 7x yourself.

Another point is your 4x raise pre, he still went ahead and 3 bet showing more strength. You don't see many opens for this size anymore, did you have a concrete reason for this?

Posted 8 years ago
He is isoing the fish so open size is std (could iso even larger if fish limp/calls a lot). I would fold turn and make note of his line. Shoving turn with this SPR with an overpair is pretty fine by him given that an average NL10 reg is pretty stationy when it comes to folding overpairs.
Posted 8 years ago
Turlock: This is a fold.

You're right that he's looking for folds, but I would say that's because he's worried about a four straight appearing on the board regardless of how often you show up with 7x yourself.

Another point is your 4x raise pre, he still went ahead and 3 bet showing more strength. You don't see many opens for this size anymore, did you have a concrete reason for this?



Just a standard ISO raise size vs limper for me.