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CO opens 3x I call from BB .1010

Flop459

Co bets 3/4, I call

Turn Q

CO bets 3/4, I call

Riv4

Villan bets 3/4, Hero?

There's a lot of value in my opponents range, over pairs, FH's, turned Q's or two pairs. However all the draws missed, the the straight, the flush draw and the backdoor draws that barrelled the turn scare card. My range is pretty capped here and I'm right near the top of my range if not the top, after I flat the flop. The only read I have is that this player seems like an ok reg. What do people think, do we win more than the 42% break-even threshold by calling?

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Most decent regs at 100nl will know that you know everything missed and that you will be calling wider. With this data and villain being an okay reg, I don't think they bluff that river all that often.

As you said there is a bunch of value in their range, they have all sets, over pairs and maybe even two pairs (Q9s/45) in their range.

I've plugged this range in equilab real quickly, it just depends on how wide of a range you want to give him in the CO and how you perceive his barrelling frequencies. If he sees that your defending well or not also makes a pretty big difference, if your the type of player thats attacking these boards with a c/r then we can remove a decent portion of his bluffs / back door bluffs, then I think we need to be folding.

http://www.pokerstrategy.com
Board: 9d5h4hQd4s
Equity Win Tie
MP2 55.71% 55.71% 0.00% { QQ+, 99, 55-44, AdKd, AhKh, AdQd, KdQd, AdJd, AhJh, KdJd, QdJd, QhJh, AdTd, AhTh, KdTd, QdTd, QhTh, JhTh, Ad8d, Ah8h, Kh8h, Qd8d, Qh8h, Jh8h, Th8h, Ad7d, Ah7h, Kh7h, Qd7d, Qh7h, 8d7d, 8h7h, Ad6d, Ah6h, Kh6h, 7d6d, 7h6h, Ad5d, Ad4d, Ad3d, Ah3h, Ad2d, Ah2h, AQo, QdJh, QdJs, QdJc, QhJd, QhJs, QhJc, JdTh, JdTs, JdTc, JhTd, JhTs, JhTc }
MP3 44.29% 44.29% 0.00% { TsTc }

I think the above is pretty reasonable for what can get to the river with those sizing's and continue all 3 streets. Take a look yourself though, tighten up the range or add more bluffs.

How do you get the break even point being 42%? Its 29%. I think you mixed it up with the FE he needs for a bluff to be break even. Thats 42%. So one thing is for sure. We dont want to fold more than 42% of our range.

I think you can add some random KJo KTo to that range

@Curl-1-out. I would also expect them to have all A2s-A3s and all 76s. For value you missed A9,JJ and 45s, Q9s is in most ppl CO Opening range?

Looks like a hand we have to call since we get good enough odds and if we dont call this we will fold to much of our range and make his bet very profitable.

Yeh I missed out some hands, not on purpose I was rushing but I would say only a small % of regs will value bet worse than a Q, at least on microgaming.

If he bets 3/4 then that's like 7.50 into 10 so 7.50 to win 17.50. 7.5/17.5=42.9%? unless my poker maths are a bit off after not having played for a while.

@Curl-1-out what's the % chance of winning according to that model, is it 44.29%?

Cheers for the feedback everyone

Yeh that model 44% but as mentioned in previous post I've missed some bluffs and value combos.

Your math is off, should be 7.50total pot if we call so 7.5/25 ~30% making this a pretty easy call even if we give him the thinner value bets worse than Qx.

Overall I like how you played the hand. River seems like a call to me anyway, I think there are enough hands villain can show up with that have missed here that will make calling profitable. I'm obviously not going to be shocked if we are behind here but there are enough potential bluffs out there that justify it.

It feels like at 100NL we're right on the cusp of having to make these calls against decent regs, but at the same time I still wouldn't expect it to be a good call most of the time.

If you think villain is an ok reg then you must have plenty of stats on him, including his barrel frequencies, general aggression etc. I would use this info heavily to make a decision here, along with recent game flow.

Curl-1-out: Yeh that model 44% but as mentioned in previous post I've missed some bluffs and value combos.

Your math is off, should be 7.50total pot if we call so 7.5/25 ~30% making this a pretty easy call even if we give him the thinner value bets worse than Qx.

cheers for the correction buddy, forgot to add our call into the pot

Turlock: It feels like at 100NL we're right on the cusp of having to make these calls against decent regs, but at the same time I still wouldn't expect it to be a good call most of the time.

If you think villain is an ok reg then you must have plenty of stats on him, including his barrel frequencies, general aggression etc. I would use this info heavily to make a decision here, along with recent game flow.

Unibet, so no HUD

If you give the guy every single combo of possible busted draw then obviously we are going to wind up having a call. The problem is that guys are passive and won't necessarily bluff with those holdings. It usually works out being a pretty straightforward river fold here unless we have some kind of read.

Everything missed and river diminished his set combos -> Easy call vs a decent opposition.

@w34z3l What hands would you call the river with that you play like this? I would think the opposit of you and say its a pretty straight forward river call here unless we have a good read.

BTW this is also the absolute best TT combination to call if you think about blocking effects.

TT could easily be a call vs a good opponent. I don't really want to give unknown 100nl guy credit for being good though. His bluffing frequency is likely low enough that any bluff-catcher is an exploitative fold.

w34z3l: TT could easily be a call vs a good opponent. I don't really want to give unknown 100nl guy credit for being good though. His bluffing frequency is likely low enough that any bluff-catcher is an exploitative fold.

good point, I forgot most players are too passive and particularly on unibet the population will give up too frequently on the river

So lucky to have someone like Weazel going through the threads! and some awesome feedback and questions from everyone else, cheers everyone!!!

So you are folding everything except QhXh and 4dXd?

Think its bad since you will fold like 95% of your range in a spot where Villian will have tons of missed draws.

I wouldnt recomend going this far off GTO without a BIG read.
"The population is under bluffing" read is not a strong enough read for me to be comfortable folding.

There is two missed FD's, 2 missed OESD and almost every hand has at least a GS and our range is capped, not really a normal 3 barrel spot.

Got a small stakes DB from 100nl - 600nl, large sample, over 1M. Using custom notecaddy definitions can demonstrate average bluffing frequency on triple barrel is around 16%. Might be higher in this spot due to the busted draws.

Given pot-odds we need him to bluff exactly 30% (almost double) in order to have a profitable call with any bluffcatcher. Assuming 29% bluffing frequency on his part, all bluffcatchers become an exploitative fold still.

There is a chance that this individual opponent is bluffing at the right frequency or even more aggressively than the right frequency. On average though, he won't be.

I don't just say random stuff btw, every HH review can be backed up with some sort of detailed analysis.

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