5NL QQ

Posted 8 years ago

Would like your opinion on this hand!

Villain has reg stats over a small sample 21/17

Here was my thought process:

Flop: After flatting the flop and getting minraised... It looks a lot like a draw. 78 / QJ (Although we block) + flush draws, value hands are obviously AT, 9T, 33 & 99 which could raise but I would suspect them to raise larger. I think TT would 3bet PF.... Should I 3bet GII here?

Turn: A doesn't really change his range... Other than AT of course but would that raise flop often? hmmm

River: 3 comes... Reduces set combo's and doesn't change anything else. Straight draws & flush draws brick

So due to the small sizing on each street... river call?

Hand Conversion Powered by WeakTight Poker Hand History Converter
$0.02/$0.05 No Limit Holdem 888
6 Players

Blinds$0.02/$0.056
UTG elic7773 $4
UTG+1 kailakaev $5.39
CO ckpeely $4.95
D shinomontajn $5.36
SBHero $5.48
BB CallMeBoi $7.19
Preflop
6$0.07Hero is SBQQ
2 folds, ckpeely calls $0.05, 1 fold, Hero raises to $0.20, CallMeBoi calls $0.15, ckpeely folds
Flop
2$0.45T39
Hero bets$0.27, CallMeBoi raises to $0.54, Hero calls$0.27
Turn
2$1.53A
Hero checks, CallMeBoi bets $0.71, Hero calls$0.71
River
2$2.953
Hero checks, CallMeBoi bets $1.47, Hero ???
Grocker6

Last Post 8 years ago by

Grocker6

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Posted 8 years ago
I think your analysis is spot on, and in a 100NL game or higher I'm calling.

The problem is, as we see written in so many hand reviews here, the fact that players won't 3 barrel bluff with any kind of regular frequency at micro stakes, means the other logic becomes less important. Some of his bluff range will include plenty of Ax combos as well, so I would fold.
Posted 8 years ago
^ Very good points there Turlock at the 3 barreling.

However, every draw missed and there's tons of them (FDs/OESDs), for the size I am calling and taking a note. If their sizing was a lot bigger say 70% I'd go and fold.
Posted 8 years ago
As played calling down is fine however on the flop just raise and get it in vs this line and on this draw heavy board.
Posted 8 years ago
Thanks for responses guys!

@Turlock@Harvie do you agree with @StratoMan about getting it in on the flop?
Posted 8 years ago
Getting 3:1 (25%) on calling river against a line that possibly contains a number of draws. He needs to be doing this with busted draws a lot, and I don't know there are actually that many he has that he then chooses to barrel three streets with. From a raw combination standpoint sure there are 30% of hands he maybe has here that are draws, but he does not always fire 3 bullets with those hands. If half the time he three barrels bluffs then he needs to have busted draws here more than half the time to yield a profit. (Getting 3:1 on calling river when villain barrels 3 times with draws half the time he has them gives us the 25% we need to call).

You are asking him to do this with 78 / QJ, hands like KJss / 68ss and now be bluffing T9... We lose to 99 TT 33 AXss AT and these hands are much more in line with the action than a hand like 78 is. Small click backs in my experience are stronger hands wanting to induce some kind of light call down / flop spew, though there are instances where player dependent they are bluffs / semi-bluffs.

All that said, I probably call, table the losing hand, and take notes with some expletives said to myself.
Posted 8 years ago
If this line is for value, e.g. 99 and TT then I don't like villains sizing really. We do block some QJ. But maybe QJs, Kjs, AJs are still out there.

If we get this in, then I don't think we are ever far ahead if called. Vs spade and straight draws and sets.

I swear it's that MIN raise that gets me a bit here. For what you say is a reg, just seems like he wants to build the pot somewhat.

I don't think calling down is bad. BUT I hear the logic about the river not changing anything so if we call turn then we call river, but I'd like some thoughts on this next point from some others... As Turlock has pointed out the fact that villain has 3 barreled DOES make a difference and maybe that's the info we need and plus he didn't make it look bluffy either. Any thoughts? Because I think I've been in similar spots before.