CrazyCookie: Bet small OTT don't give his sd or GS the free equity. Ap I have no idea, you probably have to call tbh. We can't know v anyone unless we know there range what their bluff frequency is like in this spot, I would guess if he is a bit tight and the paired board be should recognise we have kx in our range that call so he may not bluff enough.
GTO = probably call
Highest EV = I guess fold
Yes, I like the small turn bet option as an exploitative line!
We charge the draws, keep the pot to 2 small bets - saving against Kx (if he doesn't donk the river). However we value cut against Jx that would check the river. Also from a game theory prospective we're only going small with Jx holdings? Which makes us very exploitable and some 100nl regs may pick up on (although at my anonymous games they won't tbh).
So although I like this option which tbh I forgot about so thanks for reminding me of it
@CrazyCookie I'm not 100% if it is the best line. it Certainly keeps it simple though tbh, whereas as played it's hard to say weather it's a call or a fold. But a check might be more EV as we value cut vs Jx & Kx when we bet and only make a 80%ish profit margin vs draws as they have reasonable equity.
So the turn bet in isolation would be slightly -EV as we're betting small. If we check and play the river correctly by folding that would be 0EV if we call that'd be +EV. If we're calling the river badly though this could end up being much more -EV than betting the turn.