I would check fold if he's passive.

I expect him to have more combos of pair/two pair than he does missed flush draws, meaning he has plenty of showdown value which shouldn't bluff the river if you check.

@Turlock what do you think about a small b/f of around 22bb to target two pair type hands?I don't expect a weak tight to bluff raise us but I do expect them to check back hands that may call a medium size bet. If we get raised it's an easy fold.

Yeah just make a 55% value bet and if he shoves it's an easy fold.

Hi Mal "the new shark" pff fuuck river jeje, but i like check/fold (if villain make donk bet 20BB or less i call) but problem here is the A heart, pff in his range i only see draws because you are blocking AK or KQ that are only hand that he can call this flop and turn

i dont know if villain can convert in bluff any hand because A is perfect in your range

fold

GL mate!

On a board this coordinated I'd go bigger on the turn, ~ 17 bb or so. 1/2 pot just misses value. I like betting 35% on the river. So many 2 pair hands he can have that check back river but that will call 35%.

Checking here and going small on the turn you are likely missing ~ 6bb on the turn and 0.8*.35*58 = ~ 16bb on the river (good ~ 80% of the time he calls betting 35% of a pot of 58bb on the river). 16 BB is your hourly for the next 400 hands and you are missing it.

Interesting stuff, thank you very much, a couple of things I hadn't thought through thoroughly in here.

@Joshk81 Thanks a lot for that, those kinds of calculations are something else I need to get to grips with, along with just about everything else of course!

@Harvie I like the idea in general but against bad unpredictable players I'm paranoid about looking weak and getting spazz shoved on.

This is probably a leak of mine because I am aware that the chance of micro players turning a made hand into a bluff is extremely low, but this board is an extreme case. I think a lot of players would read a check as a possible trap with Ax, but once we bet small they will a lot of the time sense weakness and do something mad.

Thinking over the hand again maybe it's relevant that villain has a ton of Ax with a pair by the river, so even though there's a lot to get value from we might not even be ahead enough. Not to mention the 9x combos which a weak passive player might call flop and turn with , 98,J9,Q9.

Hey guys, just had an idea.
Since my opponent is passive and not full stacked, what about overbet shove the turn? I'd be a little unlucky to run into specifically AQ or Q9. Too spazzy?

Just a thought.

Against a station type guy I'd bet more for value on the turn, the runout sucks, but we don't wanna get bluffed.

IMO here it's one of those spots that if we check then it's to check/fold unless they bet REAL small.
Since if we ever check/call then we may as well be bet/folding right?

So either b/f or x/f I think on this river. Thinking about it now then I'd bet small and fold to raise since there's a lot of 2 pairs for CO that he won't want to turn into bluff, these player types wouldn't usually choose to do that would they? They just don't think like that.

What you guys think?

I disagree with this statement. A small river bet is unlikely to influence their bluffing frequency any more than if we check. I would argue the opposite. I would take the view they are less likely to bluff to a small river bet than they are to a check, but the issue here is they have more 2 pair combos than they do AX, so they bet AX and check back 2 pair. For a small bet they call 2 pair, some 9x, and raise Ax. Their river bluffing frequency here to a small bet is going to be minimal.

This hand is a very good example of the importance of position. I could go on a rant here but will avoid it... if someone wants the rant let me know

@Joshk81 Rant please!

EQ is equity, OOP out of position, cbet continuation bet, EP early position, LP late position, UTG under the gun, Btn button... I am sure you know these Pwll but others looking at this might not.

The significant bulk (I would go as high as 70%) of hands people post where they have legitimate questions or difficulties they are playing out of position.

Position is important purely for equity realisation through having more information to go on and more opportunities to correctly attack an opponent’s range.

Equity comes in two forms: the raw "my hand has X% against a range of Y," and bluff equity "my raise/bet here has X% chance of folding hands with better equity than mine" and these two totals provide us with our equity in the hands and affect the lines we can take and therefore how we and how well we make money.

Playing out of position cripples the bluff EQ and we really rely much more on raw EQ. We open AQo Cbet a J63r board and get called… what are we doing on turns? Check folding 80% of the deck? If we have the same board with the same hand but have position on the opponent and they check call a cbet, we now decide most of the time how the turn plays out (on a side note, this is why learning when / how / why to donk bet flops and turns is important as it negates one key benefit of position – if they are checking back turns more than ~70% of the time we should donk). If we get a J63T J63K J63A J63Q we can decide whether to bet or check, and relate what to do to opponent tendencies, our history with them, and board textures. 4s may check call flop then check fold turn. We win due to bluff EQ. If we decide to bet a J63K / J63T flop and turn, it is unlikely because we think we have the best hand; it is more because we turned outs which allows us to continue to pressure our opponents ranges through the combination of raw EQ (a result of our actual hand) + bluff EQ (a result of our perceived range of hands) being high enough to legitimise a bet. On another side note, this is the #1 benefit of suited cards (also connected cards to a degree). We are not playing them to flop / turn / river flushes. We are playing them because on rainbow boards we can turn an additional 20% equity which means a lot of the time with position, raw EQ and bluff EQ we can bet again and take down pots where our raw EQ maybe was as low as 20-25%. This is a huge win. Anytime your opponents fold in spots where they have 40% or more equity this is huge for us, and this happens primarily when having position on the villains (if we bet 75% pot they only need 30% to breakeven on a call: 0.75 / (0.75*2 + 1) = 0.75 / 2.5 = 0.3 where pot is 1 for simplicity).

Ex. we have 88 vs TT on a 3K7A6 run out. 88 can fold out TT on this run out, so raw equity is 2 outs post flop, but against some players bluff equity will be as high as 90%, so betting 88 wins as our bluff equity is so high.

Playing OOP we have less information, and we lose a significant edge is realising our equity. This is not just for instances of getting to showdown, but also knowing when we can bet for value or as a bluff. In the above example (KK on KQJTx), if the positions were reversed, if they check call flop and turn then donk bet river for 70% pot we can decide based on their tendencies if this is only really a straight, whereas if they check we have an easy value bet targeting 2 pair hands and they don't know where they are at as we could just be betting because they checked, so a well targeted value bet gets called. In the situation you were in, we don’t know if they are betting the river because they have it, or if they are betting the river because we checked. This is the perpetual quandary OOP play causes. Again having KK with position, the same is true for them. If they’re sitting there with QJ and they check and we bet, they don’t know are we betting because we have “it” or because they have checked and this is a great card for out bluff EQ.

Take the 88 vs TT and have a AK376r run out. The player who has position has a significant edge in terms of how the hand plays out.

Most people know to open a tighter range from EP than LP, but most don't know that this is predominately because we are more likely to be playing OOP opening UTG than opening the Btn, they just know it because it is an idea that is so prevalent in poker.

Apply the above idea and add in floating. If you can credibly represent hands to your opponents who will hand read and make folds you can make their life hell playing having position on them. Their ranges narrows as they bet, your range remains relatively open if you call.
This also leads into another idea that when we have position on opponents, force them to fire multiple barrels. Do not play fit / fold poker when you have position except in exceptional circumstances. Make them win, don’t just let them take it. Make them give up on cbets, make them start to check value hands to balance when they check the flop as the raiser, and let them know 1 bullet is not enough. This then leads to players being forced to play very straight forward when they are OOP.

There is more I could add here if I thought for longer. Tear this apart anywhere there seems to be a loose thread. I make mistakes, I am wrong about some things, so please don’t take this as gospel. If I come across some hands when I do reviews and I think to I will post them as examples of how much easier it is to play pots having position.

@Joshk81 Thank you for that effort, very good stuff. I also agree about villains bluffing river more if I chk than if I bet small to. food for thought ...

Thanks again everbody!

I think though in the above KK example they have more 2 pair combos that call a small bet but check back the river than they have Ax combos that raise or bet the river, which is why in this situation I would advocate a small 35% pot river bet.