This time I can post a hand I won! The situation was not too standard, so better to post it here and ask some opinions. I do not have very accurate read about my opponent there, but he has been playing fairly tight and aggressive, and I have not seen him doing anything stupid yet. His nickname "RoadToNL100" makes me think that he is serious player who is studying the game. What we have here is a situation that almost never occurs in my game. We are 3-barreling without draw or anything, which is something I almost never do (well, if I am on tilt I do but it is a different story). I mostly 3-barrel my busted draws I have been aggressor preflop. Anyways, let´s see the hand:

Villain raises from the button to 0,50
SB folds
Hero raises to 1,80 from the BB with AQ

I could have raised 4x, but I want him to call with worse aces and queens. On the other hand 3x feels little too small, so I bet something between.


FLOP: 646 Pot 3,75

Hero bets 1,87
Villain calls 1,87

In my opinion checking the flop is an option, but betting is better play. So I bet something like 1/2 pot. My opponent calls.

TURN K Pot 7,49

Hero bets 4,04
Villain calls 4,04

One of the best 2-barrel cards of course. I bet little over 1/2 and I expect him to fold most of his range. However, he calls.

RIVER J POT 15,57

Hero bets 7,93
Villain folds

First, I think I have to give up this hand. Then I start to rethink all the action from the previous streets. First of all, it is possible that he has called with flush draws. It is not very likely, but still possible. We do not have to bet against that. The most likely holding he has in my opinion is smaller pair, something like 77-JJ. I do not think he floats with too many kings. This is something I can not explain, but I have a strong gut feeling that this is a good 3-barreling spot, and there is a good chance that he will fold. The thing is, that he has not too many kings in his range, but there are many in our range. My image is good, I have played solid hands so far, so the story we are telling him is convincing. So, I bet, and I think it is a right decision. I think I would have bet about same amount with AK too. do not want to bet too big, because it is not necessary if he actually have a pair lower than K. I do not want to bet too small, because he might be tempted to call with a hand like 99.

Do you think the way I played this hand is +EV in the long run?