Even if you think he is over bluffing he has 6 set combos, 2 2pair combos (K2s K5s) so needs to x/r all his nfd and then barrel them all to make a call +EV... also no sizes so can't actually say and I thought you were trying to play a low varience style? In these close spots just fold as its going to only slightly +EV at best and if its be or -EV the varience is huge for your BR.

2/3 pot bet size.

I wouldn't personally expect him to defend K2s and k5s from my 100nl observations, so I would put him on 6 value combo's. So he only needs 4 bluff combo's for break even or 6 if we count the 2 pair. I think he can c/r a decent amount of non-nut f-draws on the flop, what portion he tripple barrels though I'm not too sure. I expect him to c/r close to 100% of his sets though.

Yup, I'm playing a low variance style but don't worry about this for the purpose of the forum.

yeah true from CO he may not have K4/K2s maybe some times though. he will x/r all sets, you can probably call down and be ok here but I wouldn't expect it to be a huge +EV call down. Expecting to see the staking guys come on here and splur our a load of EV calculations. They will say easy call which in theory is correct and here probably is +EV also but in practice it will never be as high an EV call down as the calculation shows as villain won't bluff 100% frequency.

Coooooooookiiiiieeeeeeeeeeeeee monsterrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr - Don't really need to splur out a load of EV calculations here ''Opponent seems an above average reg that's capable of bluffing more than the average player'' he says???

Just make the god dam call, your at the top of you range vs a guy you say is capable of running bluffs so there's likely every single flush draw maybe some A3 A4 with A spades which all bricked, your not sure if he defends the K2 K5s combos vs your CO open what more do you need?

How can you possibly come to the conclusion that this is a fold at 100NL without some extremely solid reads on villain #NIT

Reason I say fold is because he is playing with a 5bi bankroll and wants to reduce varience.

I call down here every time and yeah it is clearly +EV, I'm just saying that it isn't as high an EV call as the EV calculations suggest as villain won't bluff with 100% frequency and we can't know how high a frequency he does it with.

But this isn't even a high variance spot - getting it in on the flop would be high variance.

We have a read on villain, flush draws bricked and were top of our range its as simple as that, click call or fold your entire range that's not a set including AK AA.......

It is high varience to get your stack in with a 5bi roll when villain x/r the flop. It is +EV to call and completely fine, but when you have such a small roll and villain takes a line like this, his range includes all of the nutted combos possible (excluding KK ofc) and we can't ever be sure with what frequency he is bluffing. Therefore he could (and is likely) bluffing with the correct frequency to call down, not disputing that at all and I'm calling 100% ofc. But if villain is not bluffing with the correct frequency (which is still possible and just because they are a "good reg" doesn't mean they bluff a lot - in fact if villain thinks we are a fish or a station he will bluff less) then the call becomes more marginal and the varience goes up. The FD missing may make him think we never fold Kx and panic checks for example, we can't know.

Also something to keep in mind is how many bluff combos villain actually has, he will be x/r al his nfd right? Probably KsXs But he will likely 3b AJs-Aks and some A2-A5s so in fact will only have A6s-ATs (5 combos) and some times Ajs A2-5s so least give another 2 combos 7 bluff combos total. Therefore villain only needs to not barrel 30% and we have 5 bluff combos to 6 value combos, making it still +EV sure, but a much higher varience spot ESPECIALLY for someone with a 5bi bankroll.

He can x/r some other flush draws ofc, and some nut bdfd so sure he may have more bluff combos which is why I still call, but saying that it isn't a high varience spot when it is completely possible that villain only x/r nfd (and not even all of them 100%) and then doesn't barrel 100% of the time eg turns AsTs and thinks he has sdv and check or w/e (not good ofc lol) so ends up with only 2-4 bluff combos OTR is kinda silly.

so Yeah, agree it is a call and the best line, but it is higher variance than you say and hero has a 5bi roll.

Yup, I'm playing a low variance style but don't worry about this for the purpose of the forum. [/quote]

Has everyone got they're Popcorn out - Cookie Monsters here and I get the feeling he doesn't like being wrong.....

Your complicating a really simple hand with the above waffle, @Archinator mate you've figured this hand out for yourself there's no need for this thread to continue other than the Cookie Monster needing to massage his ego

I'm agreeing that it is a call, saying you are right about that but that varience is slightly higher than an EV calculation suggests.

Not got anything to do with me being right or my ego. Why are you using a hand history discussion to try and bully me? Only ego around here is yours which you openly admit with your mental game problems.

Oh my lord, this is a poker forum not nursery FFS grow a pair its not as if I'm completely trolling you I'm just trying to lighten things up a bit around here, you are aware of needling in poker right?

I apologise for my own apparent ego on this occasion......

If you want to play a low variance style then may I suggest folding the flop. Yours is obviously a different approach but I used to fold a lot on the flop to action like this before Jon-PokerVIP and CrazyCookie et all told me to grow a pair. I sure was a nit though!

I think I need to call here because if I do fold, what am I going to call down with? I have basically the nut no pair and no draws hit if I start calling down and folding to action on the river even a miopic bad reg will see me coming a mile off.

In the end, I think you answered your own question with that last sentence; 'Opponent seems an above average reg that's capable of bluffing more than the average player.' = Snap call for me.

GL sir and have fun!

@CrazyCookie I've given the things you said about bluffing frequencies a bit more thought, I do agree with what your saying in the sense that running an EV calc and seeing the results isn't always entirely true because all combos wont get to the river 100% of the time.

Clearly though you have to make tonnes of assumptions about what villain is or isn't capable of and yes that's our job, how we break down ranges, based on player type, player pool tendencies, game flow etc

Having said that, we have a some what solid read in this hand that villain is an above average reg that's capable of bluffing more than the average player, therefore we must give him close to the maximum amount of bluff combos, assume that he continues on most bricks and work backwards from there to find our break even point. You seem to have discounted that hero said that and really zoned in on the fact that hes playing with a 5bi roll despite him also saying to pretty much ignore that fact.

That's what was slightly frustrating about your posts here, again, apologies for the minor trolling

And lolaments from me '...the nut no pair...' 'nuff sed.

thanks for the feedback everyone. Please note a 'Opponent seems an above average reg that's capable of bluffing more than the average player.' means he's a good winning reg who bluffs a bit more than the average nitty population, not more than regs so his bluffing frequency is super high, sorry if that wasn't clear.


Also on this topic, of facing a c/r. What do you guys think to these two threads:
Would love to hear your feedback, some very helpful comments from everyone

https://www.pokervip.com/forum/the-battle-ground/99-100nl
https://www.pokervip.com/forum/poker-strategy/kj-100nl

I would still be folding the river, even at these stakes.

From a GTO point of view when the FD misses we should probably call but in practice I still don't expect him to be firing this river with air frequently enough.