set nl 10 river play

Posted 8 years ago

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$0.05/$0.10 No Limit Holdem 888

6 Players

Blinds 0.5BB/1BB6
UTG Player6 $116.4BB
UTG+1 Player7 $102.4BB
COHero $126.1BB
D Player1 $166.4BB
SB Player2 $100BB
BB Player4 $152BB
Preflop
6$1.5BBHero is CO77
2 folds, Hero raises to 3BB, 2 folds, Player4 calls 2BB
Flop
2$6.5BB483

Player4 checks, Hero bets3.2BB, Player4 calls 3.2BB
Turn
2$12.9BBJ
Player4 checks, Hero checks
[divbox=#eeeeee]River
2$12.9BB7
Player4 bets 12.9BB, Hero raises to 41.9BB, Player4 goes all-in 145.8BB, Hero
??



villian is 41/10 200 hands ... best play river ?
FloatingIce

Last Post 8 years ago by

FloatingIce

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Posted 8 years ago
I think we have to call this off. I think villain can often have some slowplayed sets of 3s-4s too.
We are sometimes beat by 88 and 56, but 56 isn't likely so we kinda have to discount it imo.

I do think also JJ might play this way but our hand is just too strong to fold here.
Posted 8 years ago
I'm going to go the other way and suggest an exploitative fold. This guy is clearly wide enough to have every combo of 56 as well as JJ 88.

Even bad players when they get raised strong like this on the river can start to wake up and think that you're repping the absolute nuts and slow down with 44 33.

In the micros don't worry about folding too much of your range and being exploitable. Hardly anybody will pick up on this.
Posted 8 years ago
Bet turn. I do not see a long term good reason not to continue here. As played it can be 56. I would also go a little bigger on the flop, 65% pot or so. When they jam it is gross but you are calling off 75 bb or so I think in a spot where they may be spewy and overvalue 2 pair type hands. 41/10 can have some J8 type hands here too, but I would still be adopting a bet bet line for flop and turn.
Posted 8 years ago
He's almost certainly never bluffing with this line. So what kind of value hands show up here? 88, 44, 33, JJ if he's passive pre, 65s and probably at least Th9h Ts9s. I don't expect to see any 2 pair combos played like this if villain is overall passive and they may not even 3bet the lowest sets. I've been wrong about that before but for the moment I'm sticking with that assumption.

It looks close enough that I could be convinced either calling or folding are good depending on the player. You have 200 hands with him, what do his postflop stats look like?
Posted 8 years ago
77 is a good checking hands on this flop.
As crazy as it sounds, it really doesnt look like a lower set from him.
betting pot then re-raise looks ult strong with this river. I think you may exploit fold @ NL10.
That said calling it off wont be too bad as most ppl wont get away from this, so you prob BE here in a long run lol.